The world population will reach 8 billion in 2022

The world population will reach 8 billion on November 15, 2022, according to the report World Population Prospectswhich also projects that India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country by 2023.

The latest United Nations projections, published on the occasion of the World Population Day suggest that the number of inhabitants of the planet could reach around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. It is projected to reach peak of about 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and that it will remain at that level until 2100.

However, the world population is growing at its slowest annual rate since 1950down from 1% in 2020.

Fertility has declined markedly in recent decades in many countries. Currently, two-thirds of the world’s population lives in a country or area where fertility is less than 2.1 births per woman, a level approximated to maintain the population level in places with low mortality. is projected that the population of 61 countries or areas will decrease by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050, due to their persistently low levels of fertility and, in some cases, their high rates of emigration.

Growth concentrated in Africa and Asia

More than half of the projected global population increase to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, and Tanzania. Sub-Saharan African countries are expected to contribute more than half of projected global population growth to 2050.

“The relationship between population growth and sustainable development is complex and multidimensional,” said Liu Zhenmin, UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. “Rapid population growth makes poverty eradication more difficult, the fight against hunger and malnutrition, and the expansion of the coverage of the health and education systems. On the other hand, the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals, especially those related to health, education and gender equality, will contribute to reducing fertility levels and slowing down the growth of the world population”.

demographic dividend

Unsplash/Gerson Cifuentes

A worker picking coffee in San Marcos (Guatemala).

In most countries in sub-Saharan Africa, as well as in parts of Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean, the proportion of the population of working age (25-64 years) has been rising thanks to recent reductions in the fertility.

This change in the age distribution provides an opportunity, limited in time, to achieve a accelerated per capita economic growth, known as the “demographic dividend”. To maximize the benefits of a favorable age structure, the report states, “countries must invest more in their human capital, ensuring access to quality health care and education at all ages, and promoting employment opportunities. productive and decent work.

In Latin America and the Caribbeanthe share of the working-age population is projected to start declining in the early 2040s.

More older population

UNSPLASH/Samrat Khadka

An elderly man in Langtang, Nepal, where temperatures have risen in recent decades.

It is estimated that the proportion of the world population 65 years and over will increase from 10% in 2022 to 16% in 2050. By then, the number of people over the age of 65 in the world is expected to more than double the number of children under 5, and will even equal the population of children under 12.

“Countries with aging populations must take steps to align public programs with the growing number of older people, including establishing universal health care and long-term care systems, and improving the sustainability of social security systems and pensions,” says the study.

Life expectancy

UNICEF/Vishwanathan

A group of teenagers raise awareness about education, child marriage and training issues for village elders in Chapriawan locality, Giridih district, India.

Life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019an improvement of almost 9 years since 1990. Future reductions in mortality are projected to translate into a global average longevity of about 77.2 years in 2050. However, there are large inequalities between countries and regions of the world: in As of 2021, the life expectancy of the least developed countries was seven years less than the world average.

The COVID-19 pandemic it has affected all three components of demographic change. Life expectancy at birth dropped to 71.0 years in 2021. In some countries, successive waves of the pandemic could have produced short-term reductions in the number of pregnancies and births, while for many other nations there is little evidence of an impact on fertility levels or trends. The pandemic severely restricted all forms of mobility, including international migration.

“Because of the relatively young age structure of today’s world population, further government action to reduce fertility would have little impact on the rate of population growth between now and mid-century. However, low fertility, sustained for several decades, could result in a further slowdown in world population growth in the second half of the century,” added John Wilmoth, director of the Population Division of the Department of Economics and Social Affairs of the United States. The United Nations.

“This is one occasion to celebrate our diversityrecognize our common humanity and marvel at the advances in health that have extended life expectancy and drastically reduced maternal and infant mortality rates,” said the General secretary of the UN, António Guterres. “In turn, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility of caring for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to each other,” he added.

Latin America and the Caribbean

© UNICEF/Patricia Willocq

A 16-year-old Guatemalan adolescent receives care at the start of labor.

The population of Latin America and the Caribbean, which has quadrupled between 1950 and 2022, is expected to reach a Maximum of 752 million inhabitants in 2056 and will decline to 646 million in 2100.

Life expectancy stands at 72.2 years, with a female advantage of 7 years (75.8) compared to men (68.8).

The impact of the pandemic caused life expectancy at birth to drop by three years between 2019 and 2021. It is expected that by 2050 it will reach 80.6 years, being 78.1 years for men and 83.1 for women. women.

Latin America and the Caribbean was the region with the second highest level of `adolescent fertility, with 53 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 19. In 2021, the contribution of adolescent to total fertility was the highest in Latin America and the Caribbean, at 14%, a level about 30% higher than in sub-Saharan Africa.