Towards 2025, the world is marked by growing geopolitical and economic complexity, driven by competition between powers, the rise of new economies and a fragmentation in traditional alliances. Regions such as the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, Eastern Europe and Latin America face particular challenges that reflect a global system in transition. This article analyzes the main sources of tension and their implications through prospective and strategic perspectives, integrating analysis from specialized centers such as the RAND Corporation, the International Crisis Group (ICG) and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Furthermore, the implications of these transformations in key regions such as the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa and Eastern Europe are examined, identifying conflict zones and evaluating possible evolutions.
The Asian Rise and Global Competition
Asia is consolidating itself as the economic epicenter of the 21st century. Led by China and India, the region attracts the majority of investments in technology and research, redefining global dynamics (European Commission, 2024). However, this emerging hegemony faces challenges, particularly in the South China Sea, where Beijing is escalating its territorial claims.
According to the RAND Corporation (2024), Chinese maritime expansion in the South China Sea represents a critical point of friction with the United States and its regional allies, such as Japan, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Disputes related to the militarization of artificial islands and the control of fishing and energy resources have the potential to escalate into low-intensity conflicts, exacerbating instability in this strategic area. Furthermore, these tensions not only threaten regional security, but also international trade routes, essential for global maritime trade. This context underscores the importance of implementing a multilateral diplomatic approach that mitigates the risk of further escalation and protects global economic stability.
Middle East: Regional Rivalries and Persistent Challenges
In the Middle East, geopolitical rivalries continue to fuel conflicts. Israel and Iran confront each other in a cycle of direct confrontations and proxy wars. According to the International Crisis Group (2023), the elimination of leaders such as Ismail Haniyeh and the attacks in the Red Sea underline the intensification of tensions.
In Syria, the involvement of external actors such as Russia and Türkiye perpetuates an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. The lack of economic reconstruction and international sanctions make any progress towards stability difficult (Middle East Institute, 2024). Meanwhile, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues as an epicenter of territorial disputes and conflicting narratives, evidencing the need for a more robust multilateral approach.
Sub-Saharan Africa: Fragmentation and Geopolitical Opportunities
Sub-Saharan Africa faces complex and multifaceted challenges that include jihadist insurgencies, recurring coups d’état, and rivalries between foreign powers, such as Russia and China, seeking to consolidate their influence in the region (ICG, 2024). Regions such as the Sahel stand out for their extreme instability, exacerbated by the institutional weakness of their States and the rise of jihadism in countries such as Mali and Burkina Faso. In this context, the recent formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) represents an effort to strengthen regional cooperation to manage these crises, although it faces serious obstacles derived from structural poverty, social exclusion and the intervention of external actors.
According to CSIS (2024), the Sahel reflects an incipient “African Spring”, characterized by populist movements that challenge established regimes and seek political transformation on the continent. However, it warns that if underlying structural causes, such as inequality and social marginalization, are not addressed, this generational change in political leadership could lead to greater fragmentation and violence, further complicating the region’s already fragile stability.
Eastern Europe: The War in Ukraine and Regional Security
The conflict in Ukraine continues to be a central challenge for European and global stability. While options for a ceasefire are explored, Russia’s hybrid operations and the impact on European energy infrastructure create uncertainty. According to RAND Corporation (2024), any solution will have to integrate security guarantees for Ukraine and a reconfiguration of the alliance system in Eastern Europe.
Furthermore, the Balkans remain a flashpoint, with tensions in Kosovo and Bosnia-Herzegovina threatening to drag Serbia and Russia into more direct confrontation with NATO.
Latin America: Emerging Risk Scenarios
Latin America faces challenges associated with insecurity, corruption and political tensions, along with the impact of transregional/transcontinental threats, where state actors and violent non-state actors operate. In Mexico, cartel violence and the possible designation of these groups as terrorist organizations by the United States increase the risk of escalations (Global Guardian, 2024). Likewise, Venezuela revives its territorial dispute with Guyana, which could lead to greater militarization of the region.
The RAND Corporation (2024) warns that the growing presence of extra-regional powers such as China and Russia in Latin America reflects a strategy to weaken the influence of the United States. This dynamic not only affects regional security, but also the economic and political stability of the region.
2025: Towards a Resilient and Multilateral Approach
The global risk outlook towards 2025 highlights the interconnection of regional conflicts and transnational challenges in a multipolar context. Power rivalry, the resurgence of interstate conflicts and crises such as climate change and organized crime demand strategic approaches that integrate diplomatic, economic and technological capabilities.
A resilient approach must prioritize resolving conflicts, such as in Ukraine and Syria, through international cooperation and strengthening local institutions in regions such as the Sahel. Multilateral organizations such as the UN and regional platforms must play a key role in coordinating collective responses and addressing emerging threats, such as hybrid conflicts and disinformation (ICG, 2024; CSIS, 2024).
Technological transition and competition for strategic resources, such as semiconductors, amplify global tensions. According to the RAND Corporation (2024), diversifying supply chains and strengthening critical infrastructure are essential for stability. In this environment, it is crucial to balance global competition with cooperation aimed at common goals such as food security, energy transition and sustainable development.
Ultimately, global risk management will require a strategic vision that combines innovation, multilateralism and resilient policies. Only through renewed collaboration will it be possible to confront emerging challenges and build a more stable and equitable world order, in an anarchic international system.
Master in Political Science from the Faculty of Law and Professor in History from the Faculty of Humanities of the National University of Mar del Plata.
Since 1980 he has specialized in United States Defense Policy. Researcher in the team led by General José T. Goyret where his first specialized article was published: “The military component of the Warsaw Pact” in Armas y Geoestrategia, no. 6, May 1983.
Teacher at UNMDP between 1984 and 1986.
Lecturer and guest professor at the National Intelligence School between 1993 and 1999.
Professor at the Intelligence Institute of the Armed Forces between 2008 and 2013.
Between 1993 and 2023 he has published specialized articles in the Magazine of the National Intelligence School (Repository in the Library of Congress of the Nation);
Information Manual; National Defense Magazine (No. 7, 2022); and Casus Belli Magazine of the History of War and Strategy, the UNDEF Army Faculty (nos. 3 and 4 2022 and 2023).
Author of the book War on Five Continents: The United States and the Logic of Global Conflicts (2012).
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