the unknown regarding Trump’s policy towards Venezuela

Although the foreign policy of the United States towards Venezuela is bipartisan, it is still unknown what position the president-elect, Donald Trump, will assume in the midst of global conflicts that impact energy aspects: a maximum pressure policy as in his first term or a more moderate one like the one adopted by the current president, Joe Biden?

Uncertainty increases as January 10 approaches, the date on which the elected president of Venezuela must take office, amid questions from the international community that calls for “verifiable” results of the July 28 elections.

President Nicolás Maduro was proclaimed the winner for a third term, despite complaints of fraud from the opposition and the fact that the electoral authority did not show disaggregated data; while the former opposition candidate Edmundo González, exiled in Spain, has assured that hope to return to assume the presidency.

Trump, who rarely mentioned Venezuela during his campaign and when he did it was with inaccuracies, will once again occupy the White House in the middle of a complex panorama, with several ongoing international conflicts involving important energy corridors.

Benigno Alarcón, political scientist and director of the Center for Political and Government Studies at the Andrés Bello Catholic University (UCAB), affirms that, for now, it is only clear how Trump acted during his first term.

“We know what happened in the past, but we also know that there were things that did not work as the White House expected at that time and that could change behavior,” he maintains, although he does not rule out that relations could be “more eventful.”

Luis Peche Arteaga, political consultant and internationalist, emphasizes that there are interests of American economic actors linked to the oil sector, which, in his opinion, could be an important factor in Trump’s policy.

Leonardo Buniak, economist, risk rater and specialist in energy geopolitics, highlights that with regard to sanctions any scenario is possible, but he sees it as unlikely that the licenses approved for oil companies will be revoked.

“For what reason? Because the energy security of the United States is going to take precedence. In any sociopolitical scenario in Venezuela, oil rules,” he told reporters at a business forum recently held in Caracas.

In April, the United States revoked a license that authorized transactions in the Venezuelan oil and gas sector, considering that the Maduro government failed to fulfill commitments made regarding electoral guarantees, but allowed the possibility of issuing specific licenses.

After congratulating Trump on his victory, the Maduro government expressed its willingness to establish “good relations” on the basis of “dialogue, respect and common sense.”

“In his first government, re-elected President Donald Trump, it did not go well for us, this is a new beginning so that we bet on win-win and things go well for the United States, things go well for Venezuela,” said Maduro.

“The will of God”

In the midst of the climate of general fear that exists in the country after the presidential elections of July 28, some Venezuelans believe that Trump’s arrival to power could lead to positive changes for Venezuela, but others are suspicious.

“If he won for something, God allowed that. We are waiting for God’s will to be done through Trump, who perhaps could be the piece planned for our country,” said Gregoria, a woman consulted by the Voice of America on a street in Caracas without failing to highlight the difficult economic situation that millions of Venezuelans are going through.

A few meters later, Eduardo Palacios expressed his hope that the US will help Venezuela “move forward”, but not through sanctions.

“They are not going to achieve anything with sanctions. I don’t think they will lift them, maybe they will apply more force to put more pressure on the current government,” he stated.

In general, all ordinary citizens consulted by VOA agree that they want a better life, in a better country.

“I hope they talk and reach an agreement, because at tea time the ones who suffer are us, the country, not them,” said Willy.

For Leonel López, another citizen surveyed by VOA, the normalization of relations between Caracas and Washington would be ideal, as well as the end of the “blockade”, but he considers that Trump comes “with pressure.”

“He has resentment towards Venezuela in particular, more than towards other Latin American countries,” he says.

Relations between the US and Venezuela, which before former President Hugo Chávez came to power were historically friendly and solid, are experiencing one of their worst moments since they broke ties in 2019, when Trump, who established a policy of maximum pressure, recognized Juan Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela.

Guaidó was recognized by at least fifty countries under the argument that the electoral process in which Maduro won reelection in 2018 was “fraudulent.”

In 2022, after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a direct channel was opened between Washington and Caracas that led to the exchange, at the end of last year, of a group of Americans detained in Venezuela for Alex Saab, a close collaborator of Maduro. currently Minister of Industries, who was being prosecuted in the US for money laundering.

Subsequently, the Venezuelan government accused the United States of failing to comply with two memoranda of understanding signed with representatives of the Biden Administration, one on immigration matters and another on political and diplomatic aspects, aimed at normalizing relations between both countries.

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