At this point, there is no one who thinks that Ukraine can sustain Bakhmut for much longer. Besieged from the north, south and east, the troops of Volodymyr Zelensky resist as best they can almost street by street, in the midst of the ruins of what was once a city of 73,000 inhabitants and is now little more than a slaughterhouse. Since they lost the defense initiative after the fall of Krasna Hora and several residential neighborhoods on the outskirts of the city, the clashes no longer cause more casualties on the Russian side than on the Ukrainian side, as until now, but an approximately identical number .
The commanders of the Ukrainian troops are in favor of continuing the defensive operation and further strengthening the positions. This has been stated to the president of the country, Volodymyr Zelenskyat the meeting of the Ukrainian General Staff this Monday, in which the situation on the different war fronts was discussed.
“Assessing the progress of the defense operation, the President asked questions of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhnyand the commander of the group of strategic and operational troops of Khortytsia, Oleksandr Syrskyiregarding future actions in the direction of Bakhmut,” they said in a statement. And “they spoke in favor of continuing the defensive operation and further strengthening our positions in Bakhmut,” says the note from the Ukrainian presidency.
[Ucrania repele 130 ataques rusos en un único día: “Están utilizando a civiles como escudo”]
Obviously this is a bad news for Ukraine, which cannot afford this kind of one-on-one fighting with Russia. It must be taken into account not only that the Russian Army is much more numerous than the Ukrainian one, but that it is willing to organize as many suicide missions as necessary in order to decimate the enemy. Not only that: although Gerasimov has sent men to Bakhmut to take the victory photo, basically the one who has been fighting in the city since the beginning of the siege back in the summer is the wagner groupboth with its convicts converted into mercenaries and with its elite troops.
The feeling is that Russia can go on and on and on with the siege regardless of the number of casualties while Ukraine should be much more cautious about it. Hence many wonder Why does kyiv insist on defending a city made of rubble? and ask for an orderly withdrawal as soon as possible. Said withdrawal seemed a fact at the end of last week, but the Ukrainian high command refuses the greatest: Bakhmut will resist to the last manà la Mariupol, and the only thing that is being seen is a replacement of men, in no case an eviction from the city.
Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut.
The risks of this operation are obvious: it is estimated that there 10,000 or 12,000 Ukrainian soldiers still in Bakhmut. As soon as Wagner’s mercenaries took Ivanivske or completed control of the areas south of Yahidne, these soldiers would be in a very difficult situation to get out of there, seeing themselves condemned to a defeat that would lead to the slaughter of some of the best. men from the local army, destined to defend a place that seems more symbolic than strategic.
A new Mariupol
Now, in the difference between the symbol and the strategy is the possible reason for the Ukrainian defense at any price. If the goal is to deny Russia the victory it craves for the sake of it, kyiv is wrong. That said, after a year of war and heroic resistance, it would be unfair not to give the Ukrainian high command the benefit of the doubt. Bakhmut will fall, everyone is aware of that, but when he falls is as relevant as the fact itself.
Let’s go back to Mariupol or Severodonetsk. They were two resistances doomed to failure as such. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers died who probably would not have died if they had withdrawn earlier. However, the function of the resistance in Mariupol, Severodonetsk and, to a lesser extent, Lisichansk cannot be understood without taking into account the global vision of the conflict. The three cities fell, yes, but served as a brake on a possible major offensive and the prolongation of the fighting forced Russia to give up other objectives.
For example, the obligation to send troops and troops to Mariupol for weeks at the start of the war stopped the Russian initiative in southern Ukraine when everything indicated that sooner or later they would launch into Zaporizhia or even Dnipro. If the capture of Mariupol had lasted a few days, Russia would have been able to dedicate its forces to the next objective without the need to regroup troops, readjust supply lines, and so on.
[El ‘chamán’ que mantiene vivos a los francotiradores de Ucrania: “Tienes que salvarles con tus manos”]
The same can be said about Severodonetsk and Lisichansk. The rational thing to do would have been to run out of there as soon as it became clear that the casualty ratio was equal on both sides. However, Ukraine resisted… and by resisting, it prevented Russia from continuing its attack towards Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, the true targets of the first offensive. In fact, the attrition in the capture of these two cities forced a pause that completely changed the dynamics of the war. From then until January, approximately, Russia spent six months on the defensive: losing territories and digging trenches so as not to lose even more.
Cementing the counteroffensive
It is understandable that the strategy in Bakhmut is the same. A decoy to entertain the Russian forces and prevent them from attending to the other fronts, much more dangerous for Ukraine. Indeed, the defense of Bakhmut will cause many deaths and will end in a more or less orderly retreat. The point is that any delay in that withdrawal will prevent Russia from sending more men and weapons to Siversk, Vuhledar, or the Kreminna Forest.
Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut.
The gains in Bakhmut eclipse a hard reality for Gerasimov, Putin and the Russian invader to accept: Their announced second offensive is coming to next to nothing. Ukraine is managing to repel all attacks on all fronts. In large part, this is possible because all of Wagner’s mercenaries and much of the infantry of the regular army are bogged down in Bakhmut, seeking his moment of glory.
To resist in this case is to gain valuable time. We have known for a long time that Ukraine is preparing a counteroffensive in mid-spring. They believe that if, by then, they have managed to contain the Russian efforts and inflict a high number of casualties on the enemy, they may consider a new attack like last year in Sumy, Kharkiv or Kherson. This time, moreover, with the support of weapons sent from the West and with the training that many of its best soldiers have received in NATO countries.
[El Grupo Wagner asegura tener Bakhmut “rodeada” y Ucrania admite que “la situación es crítica”]
Success is measured in hours
It is difficult to determine who “is right” to defend one position or the other. There are risks and there are benefits. If Wagner closes the cauldron and traps thousands of Ukrainian soldiers inside, he will not only have provided the enclave from which to launch into Siversk and the Donets River bend, but he will have removed much of the resistance that might be encountered from the equation. in the path.
On the other hand, if Bakhmut resists a little longer, just long enough to force the Russian forces into a new operational pause, as happened in Mariupol or Severodonetsk, Ukraine will not only will have managed to avoid a war escalation in other decisive points of Donbas…but Russia will be practically forced to prepare the defense for the counter-offensive, thus abandoning any attempt to follow up the attack. In the success or failure of the local strategy may lie the success or failure of the defense of Donbas as a whole.
Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut.
Sooner or later, someone will have to make the decision to evacuate the city before it becomes a mousetrap. Choosing the ideal moment is what they are considering in kyiv. Between the disaster and the master move there can be very few days, even hours. Those that allow us to later evaluate who has fallen into whose trap. That is why they are fighting in Bakhmut, that is why they are fighting all over Donetsk and Lugansk.
