the two faces of India’s population growth

India’s population may already have surpassed China’s. However, there are profound differences between urban and rural areas, and between the north and the south of the country. The main challenges are the pressure on the infrastructures of the metropolises and the creation of jobs for young people.

Milan () – Even before China admitted its population decline, demographic projections prepared by the United Nations in July last year anticipated that India would surpass China in 2023. India has passed 450 million inhabitants in 1960 to more than 1.4 billion today: rapid, uneven growth, with a slight slowdown in recent years. From a fertility rate of 5.9 in 1960 it went to 2.24 in 2020, with huge differences between rural and urban areas, and between the north and south of the country.

That is why experts do not foresee the same demographic contraction for India as for China. By contrast, the National Commission for the Population of Delhi forecasts an increase to 1.52 billion people by 2036, while the United Nations estimates that the peak will be in 2064 with 1.7 billion inhabitants.

It needs to be noted, however, that there is great uncertainty regarding data collection in India. The census is carried out every 10 years and the last one, scheduled for 2021, was postponed by the government to a date that has not yet been set. This is why many international observers believe that the Indian population may already have surpassed the Chinese.

However, it can be said with certainty that today India is the country with the highest number of births in the world: 24 million a year according to the UN. Compared to the past, more and more children are being born in megacities like Mumbai, which has 22 million inhabitants, 40% of whom live in slums. Migration to cities will be one of the elements that will most mark the demographic evolution of the coming years, subjecting city infrastructures to unprecedented stress, despite the fact that, compared to rural areas, urban fertility rates They have already started to decline. Government data indicates that right now about a third of the population lives in urban areas, but by 2030 the percentage will rise to 40%. Currently, women in the metropolis have fewer children than families in the countryside, which translates into different fertility rates: 2.4 in the countryside compared to 1.7 in the cities (according to 2017 data).

That gap is also reflected between the north of the country, for the most part still underdeveloped, and the south, richer and more progressive, where population growth is slowing. Some commentators believe that India may even have to simultaneously face problems related to a baby boom and an aging population. Indeed, it is estimated that in the next 15 years a man from the southern state of Tamil Nadu will be on average 12 years older than a Biharan.

In the next decade, a third of the population increase will depend on just two northern states, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. In Bihar, a woman still gives birth to three or more children, while demographic stability, defined by a fertility rate of 2.1, should only be reached in 2039, a level at which Kerala, one of the most developed states in the country, arrived in 1998.

What everyone is wondering is whether the Indian government will be able to cope with the challenges posed by such rapid and uneven growth: the median age in India is 28.4, female labor force participation was only 19% in 2021, while youth unemployment is stuck at 23%. The percentages seem low, but they translate into enormous numbers in absolute terms: in Uttar Pradesh, for example, where the average age is 20, there are 3.4 million unemployed people under 25 years of age. To incorporate new generations into the labor market, India should create a minimum of 90 million non-agricultural jobs (a sector in which 45% of the population works) by 2030.

The next few decades, then, present a great opportunity for the Indian economy, but if the Indian government is unable to address the problems associated with such rapid and uneven growth, India’s baby boom could turn into a catastrophe.