The movements of Russian troops and equipment on the Ukrainian front give a glimpse of Moscow’s military plans. A new offensive is feared in the coming weeks.
It is the sword of Damocles that seems to wave more and more over the heads of the Ukrainian soldiers. This is the Russian spring offensive that everyone is talking about, which seems to be getting closer.
When and where will it take place? Will Ukraine have the necessary human and logistical resources to deal with it? There seems to be a sense of urgency, both in kyiv and in Western capitals that have vowed to support the Ukrainian war effort.
From words to deeds
The Russians would like to launch the assault by February 24, a year after the outbreak of the war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his televised speech on February 5.
This Thursday, the Ukrainian president also warned that an escalation of the conflict is already taking place in the Donbass region.
At the moment, it appears that hundreds of thousands of additional Russian soldiers “are completing their training on the Ukrainian border,” Oleksii Reznikov, Ukrainian Defense Minister, told BFM on February 3.
The Ukrainians are not the only ones waving the red flag pointing to a major offensive being prepared in Moscow. Julianne Smith, the US ambassador to NATO, also mentioned it in early February to insist on the “urgency” of sending tanks to Ukraine as soon as possible to contain the Russian assault.
Even Russian President Vladimir Putin alluded to it, without speaking openly of a major offensive. He warned “the Army General Staff that he wanted the territories lost by Russia in the Donetsk region (as a result of the Ukrainian counter-offensive) to be retaken before March,” says Sim Tack, a military analyst at Forces Analysis, a research company. conflict monitoring.
But words have never been enough to lead an offensive. On the ground, it is currently “very difficult to know what Russia is up to,” said Tack, who has access to satellite images of the fighting zones. And he adds: “Although we have indications that Moscow is strengthening its position.”
New Russian troops and tanks
Indeed, there are “new troops that are being redeployed in various places on the front line,” the expert notes. These are mainly soldiers who were training in Belarus after being called up during the partial mobilization of September 2022.
According to Sim Tack, the figures put forward by some Ukrainian officials – almost 500,000 additional soldiers – seem “somewhat overestimated”. The analyst assumes “a certain exaggeration to maintain pressure on Western countries and make them understand that it is urgent that they fulfill their promise to send the promised military material.”
Furthermore, Moscow does not appear to be massing new units around any particular city or war objective. The observed troop movements do not give credence to the imminence of an offensive in the Zaporizhia region, a hypothesis suggested by some analysts.
But Russia is not content with sending more men. Artillery and, above all, new battle tanks are also heading to the front. “These are mostly T-90s, quite modern tanks, which are being deployed in most of the areas where the fighting is taking place,” Sim Tack says.
An offensive prior to the arrival of western reinforcements
Moscow appears to be sending more artillery and tanks to the front line, from the north at Kupiansk (south of Kharkiv) to the south at Vouhledar (south of Donetsk). This area also includes Bakhmut, a city that has been the subject of heavy fighting and where the Russian Army appears to be slowly but surely gaining ground.
T-90 tanks have also been sent to the Lugansk region, according to Tack, “where there are Russian paratroopers.”
These Russian preparations suggest that the long-awaited spring offensive would essentially be, as the expert puts it, “an intensification of efforts in which Moscow is already trying to subdue the Ukrainian forces.”
In other words, the Kremlin would not consider opening a new front. Moscow would rather seek to increase the pressure on the current front line. A tactic that is also in line with Putin’s goal of controlling the Donetsk region by spring.
“The capture of Bakhmut would open the way for the Russians from the south to the main areas of the Donetsk region that still elude them. Namely, those around the cities of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. These urban centers would also be accessible from the North if the Russian Army were to achieve a breakthrough in Kupiansk”, sums up Sim Tack.
Moscow would like to launch this offensive as quickly as possible. If possible before the arrival of Western tanks and new ammunition promised by the United States and other NATO members.
The date of the first “anniversary” of the start of the war seems to fit this need for speed. For most of the armored vehicles and new weapons promised to the Ukrainians would not yet be available to the troops at the front.
“This spring offensive will probably be decisive for the continuation of the conflict,” says Sim Tack.
The Ukrainians will do their best to keep the front line immobile until the new Western equipment arrives. Then they could launch their counteroffensive. Thus, the Russian forces will find it difficult to reconcile two contradictory premises: gaining ground to satisfy the Kremlin’s objectives and, at the same time, defending their positions against Ukrainians armed with advanced Western equipment.
On the other hand, if the Russians manage to control the entire Donetsk district, “they will be able to concentrate solely on defensive tasks”, which would make them more effective, concludes Sim Tack.
This article has been adapted from its original French version.
