The strategic evangelical vote in Brazil that both Bolsonaro and Lula seek to seduce

First modification: 09/27/2022 – 22:48

The current president of Brazil is very close to Pastor Silas Malafaia, religious leader of the Assembly of God Victory in Christ, with whom he even traveled to the funeral of Queen Elizabeth II. By the way, it was a highly criticized trip both in Brazil and in the United Kingdom for campaigning in the middle of a wake. However, this alliance between religion and politics, which brought Bolsonaro to power 4 years ago, seems to be in question due to the vote of women and the youngest.

Lula’s campaign is aware of this gap. She knows that 54% of women reject Bolsonaro. For this reason, it has intensified its efforts to reach 23 million black and poor women, who profess to be evangelicals, but are dissatisfied with Bolsonaro’s treatment of women and his aggressive weapons policy.

Earlier this month, Lula and his vice-presidential ticket Geraldo Alckmin participated in an event with evangelicals in São Gonçalo, on the outskirts of Rio de Janeiro. Among the faithful was Jaqueline Cardoso da Silva, a primary school teacher who is evangelical. In 2018 she voted for Bolsonaro, but this year she will give her preference to Lula. “I believe that if Lula returns, she will make improvements in the area of ​​education. She is going to help the poor, mainly in the outskirts of Rio de Janeiro, where I live, and she is going to generate jobs”, she assures.

A fake news campaign accused Lula of wanting to shut down evangelical churches, in case of victory. The left-wing presidential candidate is struggling to prove otherwise. “There was never in the history of Brazil a president who treated religion and churches with the democracy with which I took care of this country”, he has vehemently affirmed during his electoral campaign.

The youth vote is also crucial for Lula’s Workers’ Party. This year, for the first time, 2.1 million young people aged 16 and 17 will go to the polls. Although his vote is not compulsory, it represents a significant percentage in increasingly tight elections, in which Lula is desperately trying to win in the first round. It would be something unprecedented in the young Brazilian democracy.

Lula has 52% of the preferences of young people, according to the polls. For this reason, Rayanne Puerta Alves dos Santos, a 17-year-old student, wanted to go out and give her support to Bolsonaro on September 7, during the celebrations of the bicentennial of Brazil’s independence. “When I found out that I could get my voter title, I told my father that I wanted to do it. Although I represent only 1% of the population, it is very important”, said this young woman, who participated with her father and her younger brother in the massive act on Copacabana beach, in Rio de Janeiro. “She has her own political opinion of her. I didn’t influence her. She is from the right”, highlights Raúl César Alves dos Santos, Rayanne’s father.

Abstention and null and blank voting will also play a determining role. In 2018, some 42 million Brazilians, that is, one in three voters, chose not to speak out at the polls. If they decide to vote this year, they can change the electoral result. The corruption linked to the Lava Jato investigation was one of the main reasons for the disappointment of Brazilians with their political class.

“The high competitiveness of this lawsuit is causing people to become directly involved with the two candidates, a phenomenon that has not been seen for a long time. This leads me to think that the phenomenon of abstention is going to fall this year”, estimates Márcia Ribeiro Dias, political scientist and professor at the Federal University of the State of Rio de Janeiro (UniRio). This analyst believes that greater political participation can benefit the left.