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We are a month away from the presidential elections in Paraguay, scheduled for April 30, in which it will be decided who replaces Abdo Benítez. Some elections in which, as always, the candidates of the traditional groups, the Colorado Party and the Liberal Party, are favourites. The Colorado party with a certain advantage, Santiago Peña against the liberal Efraín Alegre, who is running for the third time in the elections.
4.8 million voters are called to the polls on April 30 and these previous weeks it seems that the campaign arouses little interest. Everything indicates that the battle is being fought, once again, between the two parties that dominate Paraguayan political life. He Colorado party who has governed the country for 70 years, except for the parenthesis Fernando Lugoand the Liberal Party. And it is that Paraguayan political elections are held almost as if it were a soccer match, a derby, between two old known clubs, with a perennial favorite; and with some voters, who more than voters, behave like fans, this is how the Professor at the National University of Pilar, Marcello Lachi, expert on the Paraguayan electoral system: “Here being a colorado or a liberal is a social identity and that means that those fans vote for their team. Two thirds of the voters vote according to that affiliation”
This year the captain of the Colorados, the candidate, is Santiago Pena, 44 years old, The dolphin of former President Horacio Cartes, the object of corruption complaints and by the Liberals, heads the team for the third time, Efraín Alegre, 60, but this time he comes without a solid alliance behind him. Marcello Lachi: “Peña starts with an advantage because it was not possible to build a very strong alliance. There are candidacies from small left-wing parties that five years ago did participate in the alliance that lost against the Colorado party, but this time they are running for other people,” Lachi stated in the RFI microphones.
The winner of the elections will replace Abdo Benitez for a period of five years in a context of strong social inequalities and with a poverty rate that rose from 23.5% in 2017 to 27% last year
In the last 70 years, only once has the Colorado Party been out of government in Paraguayanduring the presidency of the ex-bishop of the left Fernando Lugo (2008-12), dismissed a year before the end of his term.
With a poverty that in 2022 reached 27% of the population and strong social inequalities, Paraguayan last year it had a growth of 0.1% of the Gross Domestic Product and an inflation of 8.1%.
Without debate and with contradictory polls
Without a debate between the two main candidates having been organized so far, the polls show opposite tendencies. The pollster GEO (Gabinete de Estudios de Opinion) gives as favorite to Alegre (38.9%) against Peña (35.2%). Much further behind are the anti-establishment candidate Paraguayo Cubas (10%), the socialist Euclides Acevedo (6%) and José Luis Chilavert, former goalkeeper for the Paraguayan team and Vélez Sarsfield in Argentina, with less than 1%.
The firm Ati Snead Consultores instead predicts the victory of Peña (46.2%) against Alegre (38.7%).
