The “resistance to democratic change” weighs down the strategy of the Biden Administration in Central America

SAN SALVADOR / WASHINGTON – The international sanctions carried out by the United States against officials accused of corruption have not been enough to see changes in the countries of the Northern Triangle of Central America, which are reluctant to “democratic changes”, agree in pointing out experts consulted by the voice of america.

For the Inter-American Dialogue analyst and Central America expert, Manuel Orozco, not only the issue of immigration but also the deterioration of the rule of law in the region have put them in trouble. White House forecasts two years of management.

“The countries of the Northern Triangle have hindered the strategy of the Administration [Biden] showing less interest in cooperating with the United States and avoiding engaging in vital issues, not only on migration, but on the rule of law and the fight against corruption, among others,” Orozco explained to the VOA.

For the expert, the problem lies in the fact that “there is a power struggle between the US agenda and the resistance to democratic change on the part of the countries of the region.”

A view shared by the former director of the Latin American Program of the Woodrow Wilson Center (WWC) in Washington, Cynthia Arnson, who argues that the setbacks in democratic governance in the Northern Triangle have been enormous, because although dozens of officials have been sanctioned for corruption or because of violations of democratic practices, “the behavior of governments has not changed; on the contrary, it continues to get worse.”

Ultimately, in his opinion, what is seen in the region are “authoritarian tendencies that matter more than economic aid from the United States; previously, this was a very important instrument to modify the behavior of governments.”

Analyst Eric Olson of the Seattle International Foundation, add a VOA that, to the complicated relationship with Nicaragua, we must add the relationship with El Salvador and the lack of progress with Guatemala.

“The relationship with El Salvador has not improved, rather it has stagnated, it has become complicated and it has become increasingly difficult, since each time President Nayib Bukele takes an authoritarian course and against transparency and basic guarantees. .. just like Guatemala,” says Olson.

In short, this expert points out that two years after the administration of President Biden and the plans with Central America “the balance is not so positive or optimistic.”

Economic policy against illegal migration

For the expert in international relations, Napoleón Campos, the fight against corruption and the strengthening of democracy is, in his opinion, the best developed policy together with the investment to curb the causes of irregular migration.

With the promise of managing private capital, the Biden administration has already secured more than 1.9 billion dollars for the north of the region through private initiatives such as HUGE, an acronym in English for Honduras, the United States, Guatemala and El Salvador.

But according to Campos, once again, the Northern Triangle of Central America has not done its part to open economic conditions that can stop the large-scale migratory flow.

According to data from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), El Salvador is at the bottom of the Northern Triangle countries with the lowest inflow of foreign direct investment. In 2021, Guatemala captured 3,472 million dollars of said investment; Honduras 876 million dollars and El Salvador 313 million.

“Central America does not contribute to the generation of conditions of transparency, absence of corruption and legal certainty. In this case, private investors prefer not to go to a country, for example, like El Salvador, where the very exercise of the Political Constitution, the laws of regulations and treaties and agreements are clearly being violated,” Campos said. to voice of americain reference to the state of emergency declared in March 2022 with the aim of combating criminal gangs.

Despite the fact that the sanctions are “drastic” in the opinion of the Guatemalan analyst, Fernando Castro, democracy in these countries continues to be co-opted.

Central America was the only subregion of the Western Hemisphere for which President Joe Biden made a proposal during the electoral campaign that included millions of dollars of approved funds, in addition to mobilizing the private sector to participate and invest in the region.

Migration, without control

Although Biden’s immigration discourse has been unmarked from his predecessor Donald Trump, immigration remains a thorny issue.

In fiscal year 2022, the United States Customs and Border Protection apprehended 197,039 migrants from Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras. And although the number is lower compared to 2021, there was more migration of unaccompanied minors.

“The migration prevention strategy with which President Biden began did not have the proportional weight with the migratory wave that was unleashed during these two years, more than a million and a half people detained at the border, not including the real number of people who left, which ranges from 60% of those who have an intention to emigrate,” added Manuel Orozco.

This expert also considers that at the beginning of the Biden administration, a radicalization in Nicaragua was not foreseen, something that in his opinion nullified the possibility that the White House saw of having that country in the background and concentrating on Guatemala, Honduras and El Savior.

Of the same opinion is Arson, who adds that the strategy for the Central American north focused on the causes of migration has suffered setbacks because “in many ways, the Biden Administration lacks partners in the national governments” of those countries.

The outlook does not look encouraging for these experts who conclude that as he enters a third year in office, President Biden should not expect great improvements in the isthmus.

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