Macro-survey on trends in municipal voting
CIS vote estimate (in % of the total valid vote). October 2022
The PSOE will prevail over the PP in the next municipal elections, according to the macro-poll published this Friday by the Center for Sociological Research, which has made an estimate of how the national photo will look in those elections. The CIS does not break down the results by city, but rather predicts how many votes each party will take in all of the local elections. The result is that the Socialists will win with 32.8% of the votes, six points more than the PP.
The macro-survey published by the CIS has carried out 5,557 interviews distributed throughout the 17 autonomous communities, Ceuta and Melilla. Its objective has been to test the opinion of citizens on municipal politics: their main concerns at the local level, their satisfaction with their closest rulers and their voting intentions.
That last question leaves the PSOE as the winner with 32.8% of the votes ahead of the PP, which would take 26.8%. This distance is wider than the one that separates both parties when the estimate is for the general elections, which is also included in this barometer and which leaves the Socialists’ advantage at just 3.4 points.
In the municipal elections of 2019, the PSOE won a total of 29.3% of the votes, so now it would rise more than three points according to the CIS. The PP, for its part, achieved 22.2% of the ballots, so now it would experience an improvement of close to five points.
According to the municipal estimates, United We Can would be the third party with the most votes next May and will take 8.7% of the ballots, while Vox will only get 5.9%. Below them, ERC will rise with 3% of the votes, above 2.3% of Citizens. Already below 2% are Compromís (1.6%), Junts per Cat (1.5%) and PNV (1.4%).
The national picture of the municipal elections is far in some points from the estimate of the general elections, which the CIS has also included in this macro-survey. Here the distance between PSOE and PP narrows because, although the Socialists add two tenths in the last two weeks, the PP manages to recover and wins eight, reaching 29.5% of the votes.
Estimate in general elections compared to 10N
CIS vote estimate (in % of the total valid vote). October 2022
Below the fight between the two parties, United We Can fall 1.2 points but retain third place, which is now more disputed due to the recovery of Vox to 9.3%.
The candidate weighs more than the party
The CIS has included in this barometer questions related to local politics, such as what weighs more when deciding the vote. 53.3% respond at this point that they give more importance to the specific candidate who is presented than to the party (37.3%), and 50.3% say that they will decide their vote based on municipal issues, compared to 31, 9% who say that national issues and issues related to the autonomous community will weigh more.
In general, 44% of those surveyed believe that their mayors are carrying out good management, and 8.6% that it is very good. By contrast, 23% that the performance is bad and 10.8% that it is very bad.
