The prices and the division on the left at the gates of the elections place the coalition at its decisive moment

Nothing is as anticipated in the initial strategies, even with the possibility of a break in the coalition that could be a coup in the face of the elections. First it was the pandemic that disrupted the plans, although Sánchez came out on top thanks to the rain of millions of European funds. And then the war in Ukraine, whose effects are felt in the economy, especially with exorbitant inflation, which is the main concern of the members of both government formations and the regional presidents given the effects that the pocket may have at the time to cast votes at the polls.

In macroeconomic terms, however, the Government is relieved: it closed 2022 with growth of around 5% and the forecast is that this year, even if there is a slowdown, a positive figure will also be achieved at a time when the The EU is preparing for a recession and in which the IMF has warned that 2023 will be tougher than the previous year with a third of the world economy in crisis. The Executive also maintains that the measures it has implemented, especially focused on energy, such as the cap on the price of gas, have allowed Spain to be the eurozone country with the lowest inflation. To those 45,000 million euros, the Government now adds a sixth package of 10,000 million that includes the elimination of VAT on basic necessities or a check for 200 euros for vulnerable families.

Despite the unprecedented contingencies, the coalition reaches its third year of life –this Saturday is the anniversary of the investiture– with 66.7% of its commitments fulfilled, including three consecutive General State Budgets, something that did not happen since the absolute majority of Mariano Rajoy that ended in 2015. The percentage rises to 72.8% in the case of the promises made by Sánchez in that debate and to 68.7% in that of the programmatic agreement signed by the president and Iglesias in December 2019.

After stepping on the accelerator on complicated issues for the bipartisan such as the ‘trans law’, star measures that continue to choke him, such as the housing law or the repeal of the gag, appear in that document. Regarding the first, the great obstacle is in the limitation of rental prices in stressed areas. United We Can has intensified the pressure in recent weeks and has welcomed the freezing of rents included in the anti-crisis decree. Although the Minister of Transport, Raquel Sánchez, has assured that the negotiation with the parliamentary groups is “in the final stretch”, she has asked them to abandon “maximalist positions that end up frustrating” the approval of the norm.

As for the citizen security law, despite the advances since the beginning of the legislature, it is blocked on some key points such as the use of rubber bullets or the presumption of truthfulness of security agents. Putting an end to this rule of Mariano Rajoy was a commitment from all the investiture groups, who are confident that the matter will come to fruition after the Christmas break. The pre-election scenario is pernicious for reaching agreements, but it can serve to score a point for a group of forces that has compacted in recent weeks amid controversies such as the renewal of the Constitutional Court.

“We govern for the people and I am convinced that this is going to give electoral results, whatever the PP polls say,” said Sánchez at the course balance press conference in which he was confident of obtaining electoral revenue from the government action. However, the polls do not paint a particularly encouraging scenario for the coalition parties, despite the recovery after the arrival of Alberto Núñez Feijóo to the leadership of the PP, who they recall has a narrow margin of maneuver and could only govern with Vox.

Sánchez does not foresee breaking

In addition to the vote that they can mobilize in the campaign, the economic improvement and the action of the Executive, in Ferraz they entrust the result to the municipal and regional power that the Socialists reinforced in 2019 thanks to the wave generated by the arrival of Sánchez in Moncloa, although some federations view with concern the incidence that the understanding with the pro-independence forces may have on their electorate. Hence, Sánchez has accelerated reforms such as the crimes of sedition and embezzlement as much as possible, a debate that allowed the PSOE to breathe when the Constitutional burst in, preventing the Senate from debating and voting on the law with which the parliamentary majority intended to force its renewal.

In any case, the socialist leadership believes that it can retain the nine autonomies that it presides over and the majority of mayors. With the setbacks that he reaped in Madrid and Andalusia, Ferraz’s mantra is that the pandemic had strengthened whoever governs, in addition to the fact that they see candidates without a pull where the PP is in opposition. And they cling to that idea like a burning nail ahead of May 28.

That would be the support that Sánchez needs for the general elections, based on the tradition that whoever prevails in the municipal elections then wins the state elections. From that first test they hope to be victorious even if they lose a place. What they recognize in Moncloa is that it would be an almost impossible feat if the PP prevails in that battle, no matter how much the EU presidency will be a great showcase for Sánchez as was the NATO summit held in Madrid.

The great concern of the PSOE is in the crisis of the forces that it has on its left and on which it depends to govern. In many cases they will be presented separately and in Moncloa they are waiting for what happens at the national level with Yolanda Díaz and Podemos. The possibility that there will not be an agreement between the second vice president and the party led by Ione Belarra is a scenario that the socialist leadership does not want to imagine, in which they do not believe that Podemos is going to choose to leave the Government in the event of a total break with Diaz: “It’s very cold outside.”

Sánchez does not plan to remove the minority partner from the Government because he considers that the penalty would be for whoever made that decision. “I can guarantee you that the Government will continue working until the generals arrive,” said the spokeswoman, Isabel Rodríguez on RNE this Wednesday. That the coalition arrives united until December is the great purpose of Sánchez in this 2023 election.