The PP would triumph in the European elections with ten more seats and three ahead of the PSOE

The PP would have won the European elections if the elections were scheduled for next June 9 to determine the 61 seats contributed by Spain to the European Parliament would have taken place last week. The party that leads Alberto Núñez Feijóo would recover from that second position that it occupied in the 2019 elections to now achieve a clear victory that would bring him ten additional seats over the 13 he obtained five years ago and would leave Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE 5.5 points awayin a situation of slight setback reflected in the loss of one MEP compared to the 21 that the socialists currently have.

The foreseeable extinction of Ciudadanos, whose support would be transferred practically automatically to the ‘popular’, would allow the PP to proclaim itself the undisputed winner of elections whose reading will have a marked national imprint, both for Feijóo’s aspirations to be viewed as an alternative to government as well as the plebiscitary nature that next Sunday’s election will determine on the policies of Pedro Sanchezdisturbed both by the judicial process opened against his wife, Begoña Gómez, derived from his professional activities, and by the recent parliamentary signature granted by the Congress of Deputies to the amnesty law.

They are part of the most revealing conclusions of the Hamalgama survey for Vozpópuli carried out between May 23 and 31, from which it can be deduced that the eventual comeback of the socialists detected in recent weeks to try to at least tie in results with the PP has been slowed down lately, coinciding with the approval in the Lower House of Sánchez’s main transfer to the independence movement, as well as the decision of the Provincial Court of Madrid to endorse the investigation opened on Begoña Gómez by the head of the investigating court number 41 of the capital of Spain.

Nevertheless, The growth in support for the PP is not only explained by the disappearance of Ciudadanos. In this sense, the most eloquent transfer of votes is the one that indicates that one in ten voters who voted for the PSOE in the last European elections now plans to opt for the party chaired by Núñez Feijóo.

The loss of 3.3 points for the PSOE compared to the percentage of votes it achieved in 2019 translates into the subtraction of one seat in the European Parliament, despite the fact that The ‘Spanish constituency’ has seen its representation expanded by two MEPsfrom 59 to 61, by virtue of the proportional distribution among the European partners of those that the United Kingdom maintained until Brexit.

In a completely upward trend, the PP climbs to 35.1 percent in voting intention, according to the survey, which translates into a sum of just over seven million votes compared to the 5.9 million that manages to retain Pedro Sánchez’s party. The flow of votes for the ‘popular’ is experiencing a practically exponential increase If you take into account that this increase is only one tenth of 15 points in relation to the percentage of 20.2% that the PP registered in 2019.

Without fear of the ‘far right’

In the same line, Vox registers an ascending line in the days in which the survey was carried out, which earned it two more seats than the four it now has, with an increase of four percentage points that places the voting intention for Santiago Abascal’s party at 10.2 % that those six seats would give you. These days, Vox has been in the news for the unexpected visit of its leader to the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, in the same week in which the Council of Ministers formally approved the recognition of Palestine as a State, and also for the frontal rejection exhibited by its deputies to the approval, last Thursday in Congress, of the amnesty law.

This improvement in Vox’s expectations with a view to 9-J questions the effectiveness of Sanchista’s discourse regarding the fact that only the PSOE is in a position to stop the ‘ultra-right’, concocted on a strategy that seeks to wear down the PP in which the socialists They have put the president of Argentina, Javier Milei, on the spot for his words about Begoña Gómez on the occasion of the ‘Viva 24’ event organized by Vox in Madrid on May 19 and 20.

Fragmentation continues to penalize the left

To the left of the PSOE, Sumar and Podemos have the same number of seats, six, that they achieved in 2019 when they ran together under the Unidas Podemos brand. According to the demographic projection, the party led by Yolanda Díaz would save the day by retaining four parliamentary seats, enough to make up in the final stretch of an electoral cycle, opened with the Galician elections of last February 18, which Sumar has covered from failure to failure.

For its part, Podemos would enter the European Parliament as its own party thanks to the 706,000 votes that the list headed by former minister Irene Montero would achieve.

In any case, the fragmentation of the left continues to be revealed as a bad business for its representatives and the European meeting is no exception: despite maintaining the same MEPs, separately, Sumar and Podemos would lose just over 280,000 votes compared to those obtained five years ago by Unidas Podemos.

The Spanish representation parties in the European Parliament would be completed with the emergence of Se fin la fiesta (Salf), of the activist Alvise Pérez, to whom the Hamalgama poll attributes one seat and a voting intention of 2 percent that he achieves from ballots. coming mostly from Vox, and from the electoral brands Now Republics, that make up ERC, Bildu and BNG, (three seats, the same ones it achieved in 2019), and Coalition for a Europe of Solidarity (CEUS)-PNV and Canarian Coalition (1); Finally, Junts would retain only one MEP of the three it has today in the European Chamber.