The PP has been the potential winner of new general elections for months, but with less and less advantage over the PSOE. Those of Alberto Núñez Feijóo have accumulated three months of decline in vote estimates and their advantage over the PSOE has gone from exceeding seven points in January to falling below five points. Of course, the socialists have not been able to reduce that advantage even further and have been stagnant for months: Pedro Sánchez’s reflection, which provoked the total support of his party and mobilizations for his continuity at the head of the Government, has not managed to boost his vote estimate.
The barometer of Simple Logic for elDiario.es he conducted the interviews between May 1 and 9, which is why he includes the possible consequences of the decision of Pedro Sánchez, who on April 24 took a few days of reflection to decide if he would continue to lead the Government. in the face of “the campaign of harassment” against his wife. Five days later he announced that he was going to continue for the “pending regeneration” of democracy.
According to the estimation of this study, Sánchez’s ‘impasse’ has not had great effects on the PSOE. In any case, it could have harmed the PP, which in one month lost 1.3 points in vote estimates and fell to data similar to those of last October, before the rejection of the amnesty boosted the popular estimates. .
Now, the PP would obtain 34.4% of the votes compared to 35.7% in April. This estimate still leaves it above the results obtained by 23J (33.1%), but significantly reduces its advantage over the PSOE, which now remains at only 4.5 points compared to the more than seven it once had. in January.
The socialists, for their part, do not benefit from the “Sanchez effect.” According to the Simple Lógica survey, the President of the Government’s decision has not boosted his party, which this month leaves six tenths behind the PSOE’s usual oscillation in recent months. The party has around 30% of the votes with slight variations during the last installments of the survey and this month it obtains 29.9% compared to 30.5% in April. This figure is below what the socialists obtained in the last general elections (31.7%).
Below, Vox consolidates its position in third position and collects those votes lost by the PP month after month. Santiago Abascal’s party goes from 11.7% in April to 12.4% in May and thus equals its result in the last general elections. It is its third month on the rise, coinciding with the fall of the popular ones.
Sumar, for his part, cannot come back. The coalition led by Yolanda Díaz has been falling for three months and in May it dropped almost one point. Her vote estimate now stands at 9.5% and it is the first time she has fallen below the 10% barrier. In this case, its fall does not respond to the struggle with Podemos, as in previous months, because those of Ione Belarra would obtain 1.6% of the votes and only add one tenth compared to May.
Regarding vote loyalty, PP and Vox fight to see who retains their voters better: the popular ones retain 77.6% and Abascal’s retain 77.5%. Transfers occur in both directions: 7.7% of Vox voters go to the PP and 3.9% of the PP go to Vox.
The PSOE, for its part, retains 71.2% of its voters from 23J and right now, according to the survey, it has a greater flight towards the PP (4.9%) than towards Sumar (4.5%). In his case, he receives 8.2% of the voters of Díaz’s party, which retains 62.2% of the voters of 23J.
With these data, the right remains with 46.8% of the votes, and the left drops to only 41%, almost six points difference.
Sánchez distances himself from Díaz in assessment
Regarding the evaluation of political leaders, the President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, remains in the lead with a 35% positive evaluation compared to 33.8% last month. This increase is hardly attributable to the period of reflection that concluded with his decision to continue, because the variation falls within the parameters of recent months. Behind is the second vice president and Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, who adds two tenths to achieve a rating of 32.9%.
The leader of the PP, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, remains in third place but falls more than one point compared to the previous month to remain with a positive rating of 25%. Santiago Abascal, president of Vox, rises significantly and goes from 13.5% in April to 17.3% in May.
Add Comment