The power of remittances to Mexico is threatened by a recession in the US

In October, November and December 2021, the growth rate of remittances was above 30%, but since last January, the growth rate has dropped to less than 20%, according to Banxico data.

For this year, remittances will reach 56,500 million dollars, but the possible recession in the United States could impact forward the behavior of remittances that support millions of Mexican families.

“High inflation is limiting the consumption capacity of the population in the United States, which can slow down the growth of remittances. In addition, the economy has accumulated two consecutive quarters of quarterly contractions. Although the latter is not yet considered a recession, The probability that one will be confirmed and that a more severe drop in economic activity will be observed in the second half of 2022 is high,” said Gabriela Siller, director of economic-financial analysis at Banco BASE.

Janneth Quiroz, deputy director of Financial Analysis at Monex, agrees that remittances could see an impact in 2023.

“I think we would see the impact mostly until next year, since until the first half of the year we continue to have quite this considerable growth,” said the economist.

Remittances have continued to increase thanks to the fact that in 2020 the US government gave high incentives to families, who continue to help people.

How much money does Mexico receive in remittances?

In the first half of the year, remittances sent by Mexicans from abroad amounted to 27.565 million dollars, 17% more than the same period in 2021.

The average remittance is $387 per shipment so far in 2022.