Although the European elections end this Sunday, the great debate over who will occupy the main positions in the EU institutions has been ongoing for months. Everyone starts from one (almost) certainty: the victory of the European People’s Party (EPP) at the community level in the elections, which would give it the presidency of the Commission. And if Ursula von der Leyen is re-elected, the presidency of the Council would go in this new mandate to the European socialists, who already have a “favorite”, the Portuguese Antonio Costa.
It’s been two years since an underground race opened between the Portuguese and the Spanish Pedro Sanchez, who is building his future in an international position. The bets seemed to lean on the side of our Prime Minister when, last November, Costa resigned as Prime Minister. For two reasons: the first, that his resignation was due to a case of corruption; and the second, that The Union always elects a leaderwhom he removes from office.
“Since the Treaty of Lisbon came into force, which created the figure of permanent president of the Council, all three of them were sitting prime ministers“explains another European source. Herman van Rompuy (2009-2014) was head of Government of Belgium; Donald Tusk (2014-2019) it was in Poland; and Michel (2019-2024), again Belgium.
“It is a mixture of prestige for the positionknowledge of the community intergovernmental system, and don’t bother“Adds this EU official. “You remove someone from their Government because, thus, they no longer have political ambition of their own and they do, at the same time, have authority over their former peers to organize and direct Council meetings.”
Therefore, Sánchez fit into this first requirementand Costa no longer.
But a few months later, with the early elections in Portugal, it became known that Costa would not be prosecuted. He The main suspect was still his chief of staff.but the fact that the prime minister had appeared in the investigation was due to a “mistake” by the Portuguese police with another person of the same name.
And does it no longer matter that Costa is not in the Government? “His departure was with enormous dignity, defending the institution he embodied…and knowing that his party would probably lose power,” says a high-ranking politician within the EPP, the party to which the current Portuguese prime minister belongs, Luis Montenegro. “And that, now, clearly plays in Costa’s favor.”
Why a socialist
Even more so if it is true that the other option could be, again, Sánchez, it should be added. Because they want to preventively veto any aspiration of the Spanish.
All sources also agree that it is a socialist’s turn. First of all, because the European People’s Party (EPP) cannot veto it. The game that the popular Europeans had planned was govern the distribution of seats between June and July, based on his more than probable electoral victory, with the presidency of the Commission for Von der Leyen.
This would ensure the EPP’s re-election with the support of the traditional coalition with the socialists and the liberalswho could choose, with the support of the popular ones, between the Central Bank, Parliament and High Representative… and already in November, with everything else assigned, maintain their rejection of a candidate like Sánchez.
But the Spaniard has just renewed his mandate (he was inaugurated on November 16) and his prestige has fallen in the last year in the European institutions. the same Alberto Núñez Feijóo conditioned support for the German EPP candidate on “subject to close scrutiny” Sánchez and “the democratic retreat in Spain” that his Government stars.
Now, European sources confirm that Von der Leyen has committed to toughen the stance of the new Commission and they explain that the popular ones have already begun to sound out the socialists with the promise of supporting Costa as a decoy.
“It’s socialist for sure” because “no one would understand that, in the distribution, the second largest party in the EU re-elected the position of High Representativewhen they can stay on the Council.” The position was chosen by the Alliance of European Socialists and Democrats (S&D) because there was no doubt that it would be occupied Josep Borrellwhich generated an indisputable consensus.
And we must remember that of the three presidents of the Council, two have been from the EPP and the other, liberal… TO At the expense of the weight that extreme right-wing groups have after 9-J, logic indicates that the time for a socialist has arrived.
Why from the south
So far, the three presidents have been Central or Eastern Europeans. Furthermore, of the current leaders who sit on the Council – the deck from which to choose a candidate – only five are from the social democratic family.
Zuzana Caputovapresident of Slovakia, is head of state and does not count (let alone her prime minister, Robert Ficothe populist recently victim of an attack and persecuted for corruption cases).
Robert AbelaPrime Minister of Malta, cannot opt for the low weight of his country and the still unresolved case Daphne Caruana.
Olaf ScholzChancellor of Germany, neither aspires nor would ever leave office, and even less so if his compatriot Von der Leyen is going to be on the Commission.
There is only one other name that would compete as a rival: Mette Frederiksen (Denmark) could be a competitor, but there will already be a woman at the head of the Community Executive (gender balance).
So Costa is once again “the chosen one”, as he was before November, due to his status as a socialist and from the south. “Sánchez is impossible. Even if he wanted to, he passed his time due to the tensions that he has caused in the Union,” says a senior German official, recalling his mention of Nazism in a almost personal confrontation with Manfred Weberleader of the EPP, last December, in Strasbourg.
Furthermore, within the same Council two circumstances felt very bad in recent months. That Spain focused a large part of its political efforts, during its rotating presidency, on achieving approval for the official status of Catalan in the EU. And that he took advantage of his status as current president to reopen debates on the very difficult common position of the Twenty-Seven, previously agreed upon, on Israel’s war against Hamas.
“The mission of whoever co-chairs the Council is facilitate and direct discussions“explains a diplomatic source in Brussels. “Of course that gives some power to place themes that are of interest to the country that occupies the position… and that is good, because reaching agreements based on different sensitivities It is what moves the EU forward. But do not break the consensus“.
The functions of the Council
The presidency of the European Council is a position, one could say, almost symbolic.
He is the head of the heads of State and Government of the European Union. But in reality, he is rather what in English is called a ‘chairman’, the person who chairs the meetings, organizes the agenda and seeks consensus. Of course, it comes out in priority position in all photos: the internal ones and the international ones.
In addition to representing the EU in the rest of the world and chairing summits of heads of state and government, the main task of the Council is to “define the general political orientation and priorities of the European Union“. To establish the political agenda, it meets quarterly with the top leaders of the member countries.
The Council is made up of the heads of State or Government of the EU countries, the president of the body himself (currently, Charles Michel) and the president of the European Commission (now, Von der Leyen).
The European Council deals with complex issues that cannot be resolved at lower levels of intergovernmental cooperation. For example, common security issues. Also appoints positions in the European Central Bank and in the Commission.
The president is elected for a period of two and a half years, renewable once.
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