the population will be halved by the end of the century

Despite incentive and family support policies, the birth rate continues to decline. By 2101, a 50% reduction is expected and about half of the inhabitants will be “elderly.” The Islamic Republic is experiencing one of the fastest fertility declines in the world. The calls of the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, have also fallen into the void.

Tehran () – The Islamic Republic is going through a worrying demographic winter, according to experts, as the Iranian population seems set to be reduced by half by the end of the century and birth rates continue to decline despite efforts of the government for encouraging births and supporting families. Addressing the problem of decline that the country shares with other nations from Europe to Asia, and even with some African states, the Deputy Minister of Health, Alireza Raisi, highlights the risk of a considerably reduced and aging community in the future. By 2101, in fact, the figure could decrease by 50%, with about half of the inhabitants classified as “elderly.”

Raisi reports that Iran has experienced one of the world’s fastest fertility declines, going from an average of six children per family to fewer than three in just a decade. If the trend continues, he explains, the country’s total population could be reduced to “about 42 million by the end of the century”, a change that he describes as “drastic” compared to the current level of more than 87 million. “This means that half of the Iranian population will be elderly,” adds the deputy minister, urging awareness of the potentially disastrous social and economic consequences of such a change.

The aging of the Iranian population worries officials and demographic experts alike. Hesameddin Allameh, former head of Iran’s National Council of the Elderly, recently described an imminent demographic threat, as nearly 10 million people are currently classified as elderly. He stated that the provinces of Gilan and Mazandaran have the oldest population in the country, while Sistan-Baluchestan and Hormozgan are the youngest, which highlights the existing disparities in the Islamic Republic.

Despite calls from senior leaders, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei himself, for families to increase birth rates, efforts have had limited success. The ban on legal abortion and the offer of benefits, such as free land and insurance coverage, promoted by the government in Tehran have not been reversed. In fact, data from the National Civil Registry Organization indicates a decrease of 17,000 births in 2023 compared to the previous year, suggesting that pro-birth policies have had difficulty taking root. The main factor in the decline is the economic crisis, which has led more than a third of Iranians to live below the poverty line, with inflation exceeding 40% for five consecutive years. Other elements are changing social norms and lifestyles in cities, which increasingly influence family planning options.

At the same time, the demographic challenge is offset by the annual mortality rate, which is currently around 450,000 people, and an annual birth rate of around one million. With a net population increase of about 550,000 people a year, the nation is seeing its growth rate decline. Raisi warned that without significant political changes, Iran could face an existential threat. “If the situation persists, within 100 years a country called Iran will cease to exist,” declared the senior official, who called for united action by state leaders to address the problem.

Shahla Kazemipour, a demographer and university professor, said the decline in birth rates is nationwide, indicating the trend is likely to continue without targeted intervention. The expert added that the aging of the population, an inevitable reality, will pose important economic and social challenges in the coming decades, to which will be added the country’s crisis due to international sanctions and tensions in the region, with the risk of a open war with Israel. According to Ahmad Moazen Zadeh, director of the Iranian Physiotherapy Association, the country’s elderly population currently amounts to about seven million people, around 8% of the total. With projected growth, health and social services will face increased demand, which will require extensive planning and resources to manage. As Iran faces an aging society and long-term demographic decline, the future stability of its workforce, its economic resilience, and its healthcare system may depend on policy reforms that encourage sustainable population growth.