the popular vote and the surprise of an unexpected duel

Guatemala is preparing for an unexpected duel in its second electoral round scheduled for August 20, after the candidate and diplomat Bernardo Arévalo, who did not score in the polls, displaced others with apparently better forecasts for a second round that will define the course of the near future in the Central American nation.

In the first round, held on Sunday June 25, some 5.5 million Guatemalans amid the controversies over the exclusion of candidates and questions to electoral transparency, which resulted in dozens of thousands of invalid votes.

This after attention was focused on the exclusion of three presidential candidates, including Carlos Pineda, who led the polls and when he was eliminated asked his followers to vote null.

The first contest, in which 22 candidates ran, left former first lady Sandra Torres and diplomat Arévalo, both center-leftists, as finalists. The rest were left out of the electoral contest.

“What really saved the elections was the popular vote, the will expressed in an electoral participation of 60%, that despite the apathy of the voters, despite the fear, despite all the questions that were around in the days and months before the elections, they turned out to express their desire for change,” he told the voice of america Deborah Ullmer, Regional Director for Latin America and the Caribbean at the National Democratic Institute (NDI).

What does the road to the second round look like?

Analysts consulted agree that last Sunday’s result was a “surprise”, especially due to Arévalo’s advantage over other candidates who seemed better positioned according to previous polls.

“[Torres] It is perceived working very closely with Congress in support of the administration of President Alejandro Giammattei”, described Ullmer. Regarding Arévalo, she said that “he seems to have captured the intention of voting and political support during the last days of the campaign as a candidate who is not linked to the government and its allies in Congress,” explains the expert.

The campaign that will run until August 20 is likely to cause a “social divide” between “the status quo and the candidates with a reformist mentality”, maintains Ullmer.

Unlike Arévalo, Torres is described by analysts and even by Guatemalan society as part of the “status quo” of the country because in addition to being the former first lady of the Republic, she has been a candidate for the presidency twice, and this would be the third. In the previous elections, Torres reached the second round and lost to Jimmy Morales and Giammattei.

Voter interest

According to experts, the result of the first round could arouse “greater interest for voters.”

However, in the opinion of Professor Eric Hersberg of the Center for Latin America at American University in Washington, “Arévalo starts at a disadvantage, since he lacks the party organization that facilitates the mobilization of votes.”

Hersberg predicts “wild campaigns against him and his candidacy, orchestrated by the elites.”

Carin Zissis, editor-in-chief of the Americas Society and Council of the Americas in the US, explained that one of the reasons why Arévalo “grew and exceeded expectations is because it represents an anti-corruption movement and party.” However – she estimates Zissis – Torres “has certain things in his favor”, such as being known by Guatemalans.

“She is a former first lady. And that can help a candidate, obviously, just by being known,” said Zissis, who also acknowledged that Torres is rejected by a large part of Guatemalans.

As for Arévalo -he adds-, “he is going to have to face the challenge of not being so well known. He is a former diplomat and congressman, so he is familiar with the government, but he may not be as prominent a figure in Guatemalan elections.”

A citizenry “tired of so much corruption”

Guatemalans who voted for Arévalo – from young people to the elderly – said they had not previously expressed their intention out of fear, since it was not a “popular” option.

“We are tired of so much corruption. Bernardo represents a bit of breaking that mold of so much corruption, of so many failed systems that have existed in Guatemala in recent governments. He represents a bit of hope for us young people,” he told the VOA Edu Hernández, a 28-year-old young man, who voted for Semilla, Arévalo’s party, precisely because he did not come from the traditional power groups.

For her part, Elsa Marina Villalta Pérez, 48, believes that the Semilla candidate seems like a good option “because it is time for someone to come and put a little order here in the country, which is what we need.”

“I feel that there is a need to change in terms of crime, the vandalism that exists. Where we live there are many gangs and I think that as citizens we need all this to end,” Villata said.

Béverly Arroyo, a 24-year-old Guatemalan woman, raised demands for a new government, including that it promote policies in favor of women.

“I as a woman, so because of the way I’m dressed people stare at me, they make a bad face at me, they look at me morbidly and that feels uncomfortable because the woman has to dress as one likes, interact, walk like it pleases Here the situation is very dangerous. As a woman and as a youth,” said Arroyo, who was wearing a short summer dress.

Germán Armando, a 27-year-old farmer, assured that “what affects Guatemala the most is that there is no work among young people with studies, graduates. The truth is that someone who has studies does not have a job. We want a president who gives opportunity to young people who work for a better process in their lives and families.”

A closely watched election

Some 6,000 international and national observers were busy monitoring Sunday’s elections in Guatemala.

The US Department of State assured the VOA that it will continue to “closely follow the electoral process in Guatemala before the expected second round in August” and highlighted the country’s openness to hosting a “historic number” of observers for its elections, including missions from the Organization of American States (OAS). ) and the European Union (EU).

However, the US government urged the incoming Guatemalan Congress to “introduce reforms to clarify the electoral process and strengthen the credibility of future elections,” citing “inconsistencies in the application of Guatemalan electoral law” that “eroded voter confidence.” and limited citizens’ options on how to use their vote.”

“As a neighbor and strategic partner of Guatemala, the United States has consistently called for inclusive citizen and civil society engagement and robust election observation,” a State Department spokesperson said.

The Guatemalan Electoral Observation Mission (MOE-Gt), for example, deployed 1,200 observers and carried out a parallel vote count that confirmed the results announced by the electoral institutions.

In its Preliminary report, the OAS explained that some violent incidents occurred during the elections, which resulted in the suspension of the elections in two municipalities. “The Mission condemns this type of behavior and reiterates the importance of guaranteeing the exercise of a free vote, in a civic environment and of absolute respect for the popular will,” they pointed out.

For the second round, the body called on the candidates and social actors to “refrain from statements that generate social division” and focus on “the debate on ideas and proposals.”

The European Union EOM, on the other hand, highlighted the exclusion of candidates as a reduction “of real competition” and noted that this demonstrated “the lack of strong links of candidates with political parties.”

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