The Moncloa tries to limit the damages by the law of “only yes is yes” and shift the electoral cost to United We Can

The fact that the PSOE formalized last Friday in the Congress of Deputies the request that the reform of the ‘only yes is yes’ law be processed urgently shows to what extent the President of the Government wants to settle this matter as soon as possible. before. And also how little it matters among the Socialists that the correction to one of Irene Montero’s star laws can come out with the favorable votes of the PP. “What matters is what and not with whom,” defend several socialist ministers, for whom it is urgent to prevent further reductions in sentences for sexual offenders in future sentences, once it is assumed that the downward revisions of those already issued they will continue

The Socialists are willing to prioritize, however, the negotiation with their usual parliamentary allies. And that is what they are already doing – after the government negotiation phase with their partners in United We Can has been considered over – both Félix Bolaños and María Jesús Montero. The Ministers of Equality and Justice have not spoken again since the PSOE registered the bill unilaterally on Monday because the negotiation has now passed to the strictly parliamentary sphere.

The talks have already begun and with ERC, PNV, Más País or Bildu they are flowing “at a good pace”, in the words of the leadership of the Socialist Group, although none of its spokespersons has taken the meaning of their vote for granted despite the fact that all demand an urgent solution. The undesired effects of the rule have so far meant that the number of people convicted of sexual crimes benefiting from the new penalty framework amounts to at least 507, between lower sentence reviews and subsequent sentences in application of the law. Since October 7, when the Penal Code reform came into force, the release of 42 people has also been ordered.

In the PSOE they assume that the reform, despite the tension caused within the government coalition, will have enough votes to overcome the first vote in plenary session of Congress, even in the hypothetical case that United We Can vote against, something that the confederal group has not yet made explicit and that in Moncloa they completely rule out. Vox has guaranteed for its part that they will not hinder the processing while PNV or Ciudadanos have advanced their vote in favor of taking it into consideration. In coherence with its already manifested will to reform the law and to increase the penalties, UP should vote in favor of the processing of the reform according to Moncloa, which does not provide otherwise. A different question is what is their alternative -so far unknown- to the one made public by Justice that they will have to make public in the process of amendments.

At the moment, in the PSOE they do not see “more than entrenchment” and “preconceived ideas”, but they also believe that as the processing progresses their space “will become smaller than it already is because the question, beyond technicalities It will only be if they are in favor of or against preventing the trickle of releases and sentence reductions for sexual abusers and rapists.”

In the La Moncloa team they do not hide the deep discomfort of the president with his partners and neither does the difficulty to open space for other issues in the public debate. “It is something unbearable and, without a doubt, it is not the ideal situation for a Government that has an accredited record of services in the economic and social sphere”, they lament in the environment of Pedro Sánchez, where on the other hand they prefer to see the bottle half full and believe that “the law no longer has a cost for the PSOE, but for those who are rather to its left.”

The same interlocutor defends that the president “has recognized the problem and shown to want to minimize it” and that is something that “in public opinion has been accredited” with Sánchez’s order to reform the law without the support of his partners and his successive public interventions. “The problem now belongs to Podemos and the Minister of Equality, who are the ones who are closed in band, and even more so to Yolanda Díaz, who will have to abandon her usual position of balance before the vote,” adds a socialist minister.

The vice president, who until now has avoided speaking out, except to call for an agreement between the partners and ask for “discretion” in the negotiation, is against the ropes, rather faced with a complex dilemma: to side with those responsible for Equality or the of the blunt reform proposed by the PSOE to include the subtype of violence and intimidation to adjust the new penalties upwards. Whatever you do, if UP does not finally agree to the agreement, it will have a cost for the space it aspires to represent in the immediate future. If she chooses to support Irene Montero, they fear in the Government, she will portray herself before public opinion “with those who do not provide solutions to stop this unbearable trickle.” And if he distances himself from it, he will have difficulties “building Sumar because Podemos will not make it easy for him,” they say. A socialist sums it up as follows: “If he departs from Montero’s position, with whom affections are already fragile, he will blow up that space and if he supports it, he will be discredited before a public opinion that is mostly favorable to this reform.”

Everything that weakens Díaz, weakens Sánchez

The truth is that the controversy of the ‘only yes is yes’ law has come just at the moment when a timid thaw had begun between Díaz and Montero and Ione Belarra to build a shared space with an eye on the generals and so that the left to the left of the PSOE does not present itself with different candidacies to the elections.

There are times when what characterizes the equidistant is not cowardice, but the will to create a framework for meeting and dialogue, and at this moment this is what the most enthusiastic with the vice president maintain that Díaz is trying to build between the purple part and the socialist. Be that as it may, from an electoral point of view, everything that weakens Podemos is a problem for the leader of Sumar and everything that weakens Díaz is a problem for Sánchez and for the future of the progressive government.

The only certainty is that time is running out and that, although the deadlines with the urgent procedure are cut in half, the first full debate on the reform will take place on March 7 and that it could poison the celebration of the 8th -M, in addition to fracturing the feminist movement again.