The executive recalled that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates economic growth of 1.8% for Mexico and 1.6% for the United States, its main trading partner.
Last week, the Secretary of the Treasury, Rogelio Ramírez de la O, announced that the agency estimates a 2.3% growth floor in 2023, which will continue to increase thanks to the good performance of consumption, employment and investment, he explained.
“If an unexpected shock does not happen, something very negative, this 2.5% is going to be a growth floor for the next five years,” Arias said.
To achieve this, he pointed out, progress must be made in the country in terms of the rule of law, logistics, infrastructure, and security. “If we manage to make those changes, the Mexican economy could grow at average rates of 3.5% or 4%,” he said.
Marcos Arias recalled that Mexican growth is not only due to exports. Consumption has “rebounded strongly”, as has tourism, the financial sector and retail trade. “That tells us about a growth formula where consumption is experiencing significant growth,” he commented.
Monetary Policy vs. Inflation
Despite the risks that are seen for the global economy, a “more balanced” horizon is seen for this 2023, said the Monex executive.
Monetary policy vs inflation
Despite the optimistic horizon for this year, not so sweet news has to do with the fact that central banks will have to maintain a restrictive monetary policy, since inflation is still far from where the monetary authorities feel comfortable, warned Marcos Arias .
In this sense, he assured that although several central banks have reached their ceiling in interest rates at historic highs and inflation has been falling, a phenomenon of “continuous restriction” is generated. Expectations are going down, inflation data is going down and real rates are becoming more restrictive”.
By the end of 2023 Monex sees inflation at 5% and by 2024 converge to the Bank of Mexico’s goal of 3%.
