The INE anticipates that the GDP for the third quarter will be "around zero"

Oct. 21 () –

The general director of Statistical Products of the National Institute of Statistics (INE), Alfredo Cristóbal, has anticipated this Friday that the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter could be “around zero”.

“We had a good growth in the second quarter (1.5%) and surely in the third quarter, which we will see in a few days, we will be with a growth or decrease…around 0. We are going to be a a little above, a little below”, he explained during the V Insurance Economic Meeting 2022, organized by Mutualidad de la Abogacía.

Although Statistics will publish next Friday, October 28, the advance of National Accounts for the third quarter, its general director of Statistical Products has advanced the range in which that estimate will move, which could even be negative. “The message is the same but sometimes the sign scares”, Cristóbal has acknowledged.

But in a context of high uncertainty, the expert has preferred not to venture to advance any forecast for the fourth quarter of the year, although he has recognized that most analysts indicate that the GDP will contract.

What is clear, according to Alfredo Cristóbal, is that next year’s economic growth is going to be “in much lower terms than this year.” And it is that, surely, in 2022 the GDP will end up around 4.5%, as reflected by most of the forecasts of national and international organizations, but next year the growth will be between 1% and 2 %.

FALL IN INFLATION, ALTHOUGH WITH “SAW TEETH”

Regarding inflation, Cristóbal has anticipated that the rate will continue to fall, “although it will have its saw teeth”, and “much lower” levels will be reached, although not those registered before the pandemic. This decrease will be due, in his opinion, to the effect of the cost containment that is being carried out and to the increases in interest rates.

However, the general director of Statistical Products of the INE has warned that subjacent inflation will take “much longer” to reduce, which will require additional efforts. “The less good news is that the amount of ‘shock’ that has occurred has caused second-round effects,” he said.