The index falls 1.15% this Friday due to pressure from the banks
June 21. () –
The Ibex 35 closed this week with an advance of 0.36%, reaching 11,032.3 points, in a period marked by the cooling of macroeconomic data and the meetings of several central banks, including that of the Bank of England (BoE).
The Spanish selective has thus recovered the psychological level of 11,000 integers and part of the ground lost last week, when the indicator plummeted 3.62% – its worst week since March 2023 – due to the falls in banking securities after that the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged and in France the elections were brought forward.
The national indicator shows a revaluation so far this year of 9.21%, according to market data consulted by Europa Press, although it has been progressively moving away from the maximum reached on June 6 at 11,444 points.
Entering this week’s analysis, XTB executive, Joaquín Robles, explained that the Spanish stock market, despite the increases on Wall Street, has gone from strength to strength to close the week with hardly any changes.
“In the Old Continent the markets recovered from the falls after the early elections in France,” he continued and then commented that “optimism about economic resilience, the improvement in corporate profits and the forecast of rate cuts continues to remain intact. the optimism of investors.
Despite this optimism, Robles has pointed out that the weak PMI data for manufacturing and services from the main economies released this Friday have caused the markets to dilute part of the gains in the week.
Specifically, it has been published that the growth of private sector activity in the eurozone has slowed down substantially during the month of June, according to the flash PMI, which has fallen to 50.8 points from 52.2 the previous month. thus registering its worst reading in three months, due to the worsening of both the manufacturing sector (it worsens in a recessionary zone) and the services sector (it remains in an expansionary zone).
Furthermore, Robles recalled that in Europe salaries in the first quarter grew at 5.3%, the highest level since records began, which makes it difficult to stabilize inflation that has risen to 2.6% in May and will have its consequences for the next steps of the European Central Bank (ECB).
The ‘macro’ situation differs in the United States: the advance PMI data for June have improved into an expansion zone above expectations, both in the manufacturing and services sectors, although there have also been signs of weakness due to retail sales that grew less than expected and the construction of new homes, which fell to the lowest level in the last four years.
For its part, after the meetings in the first fortnight of the ECB and the Fed, this week there has been a carousel of central banks led by the Swiss National Bank (it has cut rates to 1.25%), the Norges Bank (it has kept them at 4.5) and the Bank of England (it has kept them at 5.25% and the market does not expect the first cuts until August, when the elections have passed).
Given this situation, the stocks with the best weekly performance on the Ibex 35 have been IAG (+3.04%), Indra (+2.87%), Repsol (+2.52%), Enagás (+2.18% ), Logista (2.05%), Inditex (+1.89%) and BBVA (+1.88%). On the other hand, the worst stock market performance in the week has been led by Colonial (-7.99%), Acciona Energía (-5.47%), Rovi (-5.3%), Solaria (-5.25%, erasing half of last week’s increases due to rumors of a possible purchase), Cellnex (-4.48%, penalized by Criteria Caixa’s decision to sell its share package) and Naturgy (-4.1%)
On the other hand, it is worth noting that this Friday the Ibex 35 recorded a depreciation of 1.15% due to the downward pressure on banking stocks – in addition, only five stocks closed with gains in the session – while Bankinter 3.16% has been left; Caixabank -3.12%; Banco Santander 2.39%; BBVA 1.71% and Unicaja 1.49%.
“The banks erased the gains made during the rest of the week due to the bad economic data, since they could affect both credit demand and delinquency,” Robles explained on this point.
In addition, the stock markets have had to deal this Friday with the second ‘quadruple witching hour’ of the year, a phenomenon that usually causes high volatility in the markets, as options and futures on indices and stocks expire, both in Europe and in the United States. United States, which significantly increases contracting volumes.
Regarding the rest of the main stock indices, recoveries have also predominated after the strong declines of last week: London has added 0.81% in the last five days; Frankfurt 0.9%; Paris 1.67% and Milan 1.97%.
The price of a barrel of Brent quality oil, a reference for the Old Continent, rose 3.75% in the week, to 85.72 dollars, while Texas stood at 81.25 dollars, 4. 1 more.
In the currency market, the price of the euro fell 0.1% since last Friday against the dollar, to 1.069 ‘greenbacks’, while in the debt market the interest required on the 10-year Spanish bond has closed at 3.283% after adding fifteen basis points in the week, with the risk premium (the differential with the German bond) at 88 points.
The troy ounce of gold, which yesterday approached $2,370, moderated this Friday and lost 0.2% in the week, to $2,328, while bitcoin lost 3.2% in the week, at 63,600 Dollars.
KEYS FOR NEXT WEEK
Next week will continue to be marked by the evolution of the North American market while awaiting the results of the elections in France and the United Kingdom, Robles has predicted.
Economic data will continue to capture the attention of investors as they wait for the business results season for the second quarter of the year to begin during the second week of July.
Likewise, the most important publication next week will be PCE inflation in the United States, since it is an indicator closely followed by the Fed to measure price developments.
Also noteworthy are the IFO Business Confidence Index in Germany and The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in the United States; In Spain, the final GDP data for the first quarter and the preliminary CPI data for the month of June will be known.
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