Friday’s fall amounts to 1.25%
Sep. 16 () –
The Ibex 35 has said goodbye to the level of 8,000 points, after falling 1.25% in the session this Friday and placing the weekly decrease at 0.6%, in an environment that continues to be marked by the energy crisis and fear of a further tightening of monetary policy in the face of new inflation data.
The week began with US inflation data for the month of August that was worse than expected, as the CPI fell less than expected and the core rate rose more than expected. This caused sharp falls on Wall Street, which ended up infecting the Old Continent.
As explained by XTB analyst Joaquín Robles, investors fear that inflation will take time to stabilize and that central banks will be forced to continue raising interest rates aggressively to try to control it. The market will be attentive to the next meeting of the US Fed, which will take place on September 21.
“The market remains divided between those who think that we have already reached the peak of inflation and those who fear a prolonged recession. After the publication, all investors are pricing in a 75 basis point hike at next week’s meeting and now there is a 30% who consider that the rise could be 100 basis points.
By companies, the banking sector once again led the rises in the week, with Bankinter and CaixaBank in the lead, very close to their annual highs. “Investors continue to see rate hikes as a potential increase in profits, ignoring the possibility that a recession could slow down banking activity and trigger non-performing loans,” said the XTB analyst. Inditex has also stood out on the positive side, after presenting record results.
Regarding the energy crisis, Brussels has proposed this week to establish a limit of 180 euros per megawatt hour for the price of electricity produced by inframarginal technologies, such as renewables or nuclear.
According to Robles, this proposal could benefit renewables, which discounted an even narrower margin, while companies related to raw materials were the ones that suffered the most, Repsol led the falls dragged down by the falls in oil and the new taxes on its business in Spain.
The selective fall was 1.25% in this Friday’s session, in which the third ‘quadruple witching hour’ of the year took place, a phenomenon that usually causes high volatility in the markets, with the expiration of stock and index futures and options in both Europe and the United States.
The selective Spanish closed at 7,984.7 points, in a session in which it was published that the year-on-year rate of inflation in the euro zone registered a record figure of 9.1% in August, which represents a increase of two tenths with respect to the July figure and confirms the first estimate of the data published two weeks ago, as reported this Friday by Eurostat, the community statistics office.
On the positive side, Indra has stood out, with an advance of 2.32%, after the appointments committee has selected six candidates with a technological profile as possible independent directors and Amber Capital has received authorization from the Executive to reach the 9.9% of the capital and become the second largest shareholder in the company. It was followed by Colonial (+1.6%), Fluidra (+1.34%), Acerinox (+1.2%), Arcelormittal (+0.82%) and Acciona Energía (+0.82%).
On the loss side, Cellnex (-5%), Sabadell (-3.77%), Naturgy (-3.14%), Repsol (-3%), Aena (-2.99%) and IAG (-2.96%).
The rest of the European stock markets have also ended the last session of the week in ‘red’, with falls of 0.62% in London, 1.31% in Paris, 1.66% in Frankfurt and 1.14% in Milan.
On the other hand, a barrel of Brent quality oil, a reference for the Old Continent, was at a price of 92.14 dollars, with an increase of 1.48%, while the Texas was placed at 86.12 dollars , after rising 1.34%.
Finally, the price of the euro against the dollar stood at 1.0003 ‘greenbacks’, while the Spanish risk premium stood at 115 basis points, with the interest required on the ten-year bond at 2.891%.
FORECASTS FOR NEXT WEEK
Next week will be marked by the Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, which could surprise with a rise of 100 basis points.
The market will also be watching the Bank of England, which decided to postpone the meeting after the death of Elizabeth II. The hike is expected to be 50 basis points.
“Given this environment, the Ibex 35 could continue trading next week between 7,650 and 8,200 points,” Joaquín Robles predicted.
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