The Ibex 35 falls 2.9% and signs its worst session since March 2023 after Trump’s victory

Banking and renewables, the big ones punished

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The Ibex 35 has signed its worst session since March 2023, recording a fall of 2.9%, reaching 11,495.3 points, on a day marked by the victory of Donald Trump in the US presidential elections, winning easily to the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris.

The main indicator of the Spanish market, which has returned to mid-September levels, has thus signed its worst session since March 2023, when the US regional banking crisis worsened in the markets and found its echo in Europe in the bankruptcy of Credit Suisse and the subsequent takeover by UBS.

The investment director of Tressis, Virginia Pérez, has summarized that Donald Trump’s victory has introduced uncertainty in the national financial markets, with special pessimism in the banking and energy sectors due to concerns about protectionist policies, appreciation of the dollar and possible changes in international energy policies.

Spanish banking, with great weight in the national selective, has been the main victim, while the subsector index has recorded a decline of 5.21%.

In that sense, BBVA stood out, the third most bearish stock on the day, falling 6.62%, weighed down by its exposure to Mexico, since it is a country that may be among the most affected by Trump’s victory. They have been followed by Banco Sabadell (-6.48%); Banco Santander (-4.78%); Unicaja (-4.43%); Bankinter (-3.84%) and CaixaBank (-3.7%).

Taken to the field of concreteness, Pérez has explained that BBVA has its main source of profits in Mexico, 50% of the total. A fall in its currency, the peso, given the perception that the new Trump Administration could implement protectionist policies, would make dollar-denominated debt more expensive, which could generate internal inflationary pressures and reduce the country’s economic activity.

The Renta 4 analyst, Nuria Álvarez, has in turn limited the falls in the banking sector in the cut that bond yields have recorded, while more aggressive reductions by the ECB are being discounted in the face of a possible slowdown in the economy of the eurozone due to the export tariffs that Trump could approve for the region.

However, the leadership of the losses in the general calculation has been led by Acciona (-8.05%) and Acciona Energía (-6.98%), which would have been discounting Harris’ victory and now face a situation in which Trump stands out for his support for fossil fuels. This current has also affected other values ​​such as Solaria (-5.63%), Iberdrola (-4.22%), Endesa (-3.58%) and Naturgy (-2.07%).

In line with this, according to Virginia Pérez, the openly ‘anti-ESG’ positions of Trump and his election generate uncertainty about possible changes in energy and environmental policies in the United States: “This could affect investments and development of renewable projects that companies like Acciona Energía have in the region,” he added.

At the opposite extreme, the most bullish value has been Acerinox, with an increase of 5.05%, followed by the airline group IAG (+3.86%), Logista (+2.20%), Grifols (+1 .11%) and ArcelorMittal (+0.56%).

Along these lines, market analyst Manuel Pinto has explained that among the most benefited companies would be those that have a “more industrial” character. Thus, Acerinox or ArcelorMittal could benefit from tariffs, especially on metals from China, a country that has been “flooding” the metals market and has harmed both Spanish companies.

“With the United States as Acerinox’s main country (in sales and production), tariffs will boost demand for its products in the short term, as is similarly happening with ArcelorMittal.”

On the other hand, ACS, which rose a mere 0.18% this Wednesday, is the Spanish company with the greatest weight in the United States and could benefit from the upward trend that the dollar has begun, with a positive impact on its results with the exchange rate.

Renta 4 has explained in a broader framework that, following the Republican Party’s program, Trump’s victory could mean “more inflation”, with higher tariffs (10% more on all imports and 60% more on those that come from of China), restrictions on immigration, with a “potential upward impact on wages, greater growth in the short term in the face of a tax cut, although it would be lower in the medium term due to higher tariffs and higher interest rates, which leads the market to move away from a 25 basis point rate cut until 2026.

EUROPE FALLS WITH LOWER INTENSITY

The European markets, which initially opted for advances, have ended up changing direction and have closed with losses, although lower than that of the Ibex 35: London has subtracted 0.07%; Paris 0.51%; Frankfurt 1.13% and Milan 1.54%.

In this regard, the member of Carmignac’s investment committee, Kevin Thozet, has stated that the main perception is that Europe will be “the main victim” of the latest electoral events in the United States and of a Trump 2.0 Administration, since it is expected that the economic growth differential continues to increase and that the risk of new tariffs gains traction, further weighing down already anemic growth.

However, he clarified that this opinion should be moderated in the case of Spain thanks to the fact that the latest publications on the GDP point to a more positive evolution, with signs of an expected recovery in consumer spending thanks to an increase in real income. . On the other hand, the impact would be more severe in export economies such as Germany and Italy.

In this scenario, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, the reference for the United States, was trading at $72 at closing time in Europe, unchanged from yesterday, while Brent crude, the reference for Europe, marked a price of 75.33 dollars, which implied a decrease of 0.23%.

In the currency market, the euro depreciated 1.71%, until it was exchanged for 1.0743 ‘greenbacks’, while in the debt market, the interest required on the 10-year bond closed at 3.147 % after adding two basis points, with the differential with the German bond at 74.5 points.

Regarding the fall of the euro, influenced by a perspective of an ECB that will cut rates compared to a Fed that would have to adopt a tougher monetary policy due to an inflationary rebound, Thozet has assessed that it may have some positive effects, since it can improve competitiveness and stimulate economic growth in the region.

For its part, the troy ounce of gold plummeted 2.85% and was trading at $2,666, while risk assets such as bitcoin soared 8% and reached new all-time highs above $75,000.