The Ibex 35 cuts the negative streak and rises 0.41% in the week, recovering 10,700 points

April 19 () –

The Ibex 35 this Friday ended the streak of two consecutive weeks of falls by recording a weekly advance of 0.41%, reaching 10,729.5 points, in a context marked by the change in perspective on the evolution of politics monetary policy, targeted attacks between Israel and Iran, and the start of earnings season.

The main Spanish stock market index started the week unchanged despite Iran's attack on the Hebrew country, but finally fell sharply on Tuesday – it fell 1.5%, the second worst result so far this year. All in all, fears were allayed in the sessions on Wednesday and Thursday by rebounding with increases of more than 1% in each one.

This Friday, after Israel decided to escalate the conflict with Iran by launching a drone attack against the surroundings of the city of Isfahan, the losses were imposed again, although they have been diluted during the day: the Spanish indicator gave more of 1% in the morning and finally closed this day with a decrease of 0.33%.

In line with this, the rating agency S&P Global Ratings has downgraded the solvency rating of Israel's long-term sovereign debt by one notch, to 'A+' from 'AA-', with a negative outlook, given the increase in geopolitical risks for the country, although he hopes that a broader regional conflict will be avoided.

The director of XTB, Joaquín Robles, has argued that expectations about a new delay in the start of rate cuts in the United States (several members of the Fed, including the president, Jerome Powell, have sent messages this week that delayed rate cuts at the end of the year or even in 2025) and the escalation of tensions in the Middle East have caused the Spanish market to enter a consolidation process.

Despite this, he has also pointed out that the start of the results season for the first quarter of the year could help maintain investor optimism if they manage to meet expectations.

Going into detail, Bankinter gave the 'push' this Thursday by presenting its accounts for the first quarter, when it recorded a net profit of 201 million euros, which represents an increase of 9%, and despite having already recorded a payment of 95 million euros for the extraordinary banking tax. The entity has posted the second best result of the week with an advance of 5.99%.

Continuing with the business field, Naturgy has also stood out, which has led the increases in the week, after the confirmation of the Emirati group Taqa that it is holding talks with the shareholders of the energy company for a possible landing in the company's capital through an offer public acquisition (OPA). Pedro Sánchez's Executive has expressed that he will remain vigilant and will protect national interests.

On the other hand, after two years of drought in listings on the stock market, the cosmetics firm Puig notified on Thursday that it will begin trading on May 3 with a price range of between 22 and 24.50 euros per share, thus The company will reach a market capitalization of between 12.7 billion and 13.9 billion euros.

Today it was learned that the company has already achieved oversubscription of the order book for the IPO after its opening early this Friday by the placement entities.

Sources familiar with the operation have told Europa Press that “there has been a lot of demand”, which guarantees the operation, taking into account that there are sufficient orders from investors to cover the size of the offer set at up to 3,000 million euros.

In the macroeconomic agenda of the week, it has been known that the German economy would have grown slightly again in the first three months of 2024, thus avoiding chaining two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction, which imply entering a technical recession, as noted the Bundesbank, the German central bank, in its monthly bulletin for April.

In Spain, the National Institute of Statistics (INE) has reported that the billing of the services sector accelerated in February and rose by 5.4%, its largest increase in a year; while the industry's turnover increased by 1.7% in February and adds two months of promotions.

In this context, the best values ​​of the week have been Naturgy (+10.28%), Bankinter (+5.99%), IAG (+3.52%), Banco Sabadell (+3.13%), Caixabank (+2.96%), Merlin (+1.9%), BBVA (+1.54%), Banco Santander (+1.43%) and Telefónica (+1.21%).

On the other hand, the components with the worst weekly evolution were ArcelorMittal (-7.39%), Repsol (-5.86%), Acerinox (-5.37%), Fluidra (-3.51%), Rovi (- 3.47%), Ferrovial (-3.32%), Acciona Energía (-2.93%), Indra (-2.93%) and Grifols (-2.66%).

The evolution in the rest of the main European stock markets has been uneven in the week: Paris has added 0.14% and Milan 0.47%, while Frankfurt has subtracted 1.08% and London 1.25% .

Despite the geopolitical tensions, a barrel of Brent was trading at $87.28 at the close of this Friday, 3.5% less than a week ago, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 3%, to $83.05.

In the debt market, the yield on the Spanish ten-year bond closed at 3.307% after adding twelve basis points in the week in response to investors' interest in investing in safe haven assets. In this way, the risk premium (the differential with the German bond) has remained at 81 points.

In the foreign exchange market, the euro was trading almost unchanged against the dollar compared to Friday of last week, registering an exchange rate of 1.065 'greenbacks' for each unit of the community currency.

The troy ounce of gold, which rose to $2,417 in the early hours of the morning – close to its all-time highs due to Israel's attack on Iran – moderated the weekly increases at the close of this Friday at 2%, until reaching the around $2,390 per ounce.

KEYS FOR NEXT WEEK

For Robles, next week will continue to be marked by the evolution of geopolitical conflicts and expectations about upcoming interest rate cuts.

In that sense, it has drawn attention that the most notable economic data are the PMI indicator of manufacturing activity in Germany and the GDP in the United States.

Regarding business results, it will be a decisive week, with large technology companies such as Tesla, Meta Platforms, Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft. In Spain it will be the turn of Enagás, Iberdrola, Acerinox, Cellnex, Repsol, Sabadell, Mapfre and Indra.