The Ibex 35 closes 2024 with an increase of almost 15% and links two years of increases

MADRID Dec. 31 () –

The Ibex 35 closed 2024 with an increase of 14.78%, reaching 11,595.0 points, in a year marked by global economic resilience, the beginning of the cycle of monetary flexibility by central banks in the face of a controlled inflation and the victory of Donald Trump in the United States presidential elections.

According to market data consulted by Europa Press, the main indicator of the Spanish market has managed to achieve its second consecutive year of progress – in 2023 it rose 22.76%, its best record since 2009 -, an unprecedented fact since the positive concatenation of the years 2013 and 2014.

In this way, in the last two years the Ibex has recorded a cumulative revaluation of 40.9%; However, it should be noted that the reference index has not managed to shore up the highs it reached on December 5 at 12,118 points, a level not seen in the Spanish market since 2010.

Going into the details of the stock market evolution throughout the year, the Ibex began the year without major fluctuations, while in January and February it barely moved away from the end of 2023.

It was in March when the Spanish stock market gained traction, like the rest of the global markets, and rose a notable 10.73%, reaching the level of 11,000 integers, thanks to macroeconomic references that anticipated the resistance of the main global economies, especially due to the strength of services and company accounts.

Linked to this, the Bank of Spain has raised its GDP growth forecast in 2024 for the country to 3.1% this December and has improved that for 2025 to 2.5%, which contrasts with the recessionary scenario in Germany and the weakened growth expected for the eurozone, which will barely touch 1%.

Back with the Ibex, the indicator maintained its price around the level of 11,000 points throughout the spring and part of the summer, until at the beginning of August panic took over investors due to fear of a recession in the United States. United States that infected the Japanese stock market and, subsequently, markets around the world.

The recovery was as fast as the fall in said summer month was abrupt, since the worst session since March 2023 coincided in time – falling 2.34% at the beginning of August – with a positive result in the monthly calculation of a 3%.

In parallel, the main central banks began the cycle of monetary flexibility after considering the battle against high inflation resolved, which in the case of Europe closes the year at close to 2% and, in the case of the United States, stickier. approaching 3%.

Thus, at the end of 2024, the European Central Bank (ECB) has made four quarter-point interest rate cuts, placing the reference rate at 3%, while the Federal Reserve (Fed) of the United States The United States has carried out three rate cuts, leaving them in the range of 4.25-4.5%.

With the start of the school year and the summer scares left behind, the Ibex began an upward trend that allowed it to flirt with 12,000 points; However, Donald Trump’s victory in the United States elections at the beginning of November separated the lanes of the United States and the Old Continent Stock Markets.

Trump’s overwhelming victory, having imposed his majority in both legislative chambers, and the foreseeable impact of his policies (deregulation, tax cuts and trade tariffs) led to uneven fortunes: Europe was penalized by the fear of tariffs , while Wall Street indices soared and large revaluations, which until then had been the exclusive territory of technology companies, spread throughout their market upon the return of the Republican.

Despite this bearish luck in November, the Spanish stock market regained momentum in December and conquered the level of 12,000 points that, however, it has not managed to reach at the close of the annual count; In fact, the Ibex ended December with a slight drop of 0.4%.

Beyond the national market, the considerable increases have mostly been the common trend among European markets: London has added 5.7%; Milan 12.6% and Frankfurt almost 19% while Paris, affected by its political instability and deficit levels, has discounted 2%.

For their part, the United States indices have posted the best results of the year: the Dow Jones has risen 13%; the S&P 500 24% and the technological Nasdaq almost 30%.

WINNERS, LOSERS AND NEW FACES OF THE IBEX

Regarding the internal section of the Ibex 35, it can be seen that the banks, in response to the high levels of interest rates, have once again posted record results throughout the quarters, which is why they have taken the first positions among the best Spanish values ​​in 2024.

All in all, the IAG airline group has been the champion of 2024, rising 103.76% in said period thanks to the growth of tourism and the strength of the services sector, among other factors – proof of that health is that the company has paid in 2024 its first dividend since 2019.

At a lower altitude, Banco Sabadell has been placed, which has added 68.64% in the heat of the hostile takeover bid by BBVA (an entity that closed the year with an advance of 14.9%), Unicaja (+43.15 %), CaixaBank (+40.53%) and Bankinter (+31.82%), while Banco Santander has limited its rise to 18.12%.

Another important support for the selective in the year has been the advance of Inditex (+25.9%), the company with the largest capitalization in the Spanish market, although it achieved a cumulative increase of up to 43% until the latest results , even though it was a record, they disappointed the market.

At the opposite extreme, just a dozen Ibex 35 stocks have closed 2024 with a negative result, mostly stocks in the energy sector (burdened by the evolution of monetary policy and the fall in raw material prices) or industrial stocks ( affected by the weakness of the manufacturing sector globally and, particularly, in China).

Thus, the most pessimistic face of the Ibex 35 in 2024 has been represented by Solaria (-58%); Grifols (-40.8%), whose exercise has been conditioned by accusations from the bearish fund Gotham; Acciona Energía (-36.6%); Enagás (-22.8%); Colonial (-21%); Acciona (-18.45%); Cellnex (-14.44%); Naturgy (-13.4%), Repsol (-13%), ArcelorMittal (-12.8%) and Acerinox (-11.3%).

A special case is that of Puig (-27.2%), which has not yet convinced investors of its potential despite the fact that it was the great stock market debut of the year, which occurred last May, and which became part of the Ibex in July to the detriment of Mélia.

OTHER ASSETS

Regarding raw materials markets, the barrel of Brent crude oil, a reference in the Old Continent, has closed for 2024 at levels similar to those of a year ago, around $74 per barrel, while The WTI barrel in the United States has done the same, reaching 70 dollars.

The euro has depreciated 6% against the dollar, trading at 1.04 ‘greenbacks’, due to the divergence of expectations regarding the role of the ECB and the Fed in 2025 – more cuts are expected in the case of the former. -.

The interest rate on the long-term Spanish bond closed at 3.05%, with the risk premium compared to the German bond at 69 points.

Gold, fueled by geopolitical instability and demand from central banks, has risen 26% over the year, to $2,600.

For its part, bitcoin has had an exceptional year by more than doubling its value in the year and reaching a historical maximum of $108,000 in the heat of the approval at the beginning of the year of bitcoin ETFs in the United States and the electoral victory of Trump.