The Government of Ethiopia and the Tigray rebels will negotiate peace

It could be the beginning of the end of the conflict between Ethiopia and the Tigray insurgency. This Monday, representatives of the Ethiopian Executive and Tigray regional forces are expected to meet in South Africa to start the first round of talks since the war began two years ago.

The Government of Ethiopia announced that its delegation left for South Africa to participate in the talks, which will be mediated by the African Union, after receiving repeated criticism from allied powers, such as the European Union, for its attacks against insurgent positions.

“The Ethiopian Government sees the talks as an opportunity to peacefully resolve the conflict and consolidate the improved situation on the ground,” said the Administration of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali.

For their part, the Tigrin forces arrived on South African soil on Sunday and assured that they are willing to talk to end the bloody conflict, with a ceasefire as the main condition.

“The Tigray Government delegation has just arrived in South Africa to attend the African Union-led peace talks between Ethiopia and Tigray. Urgent: immediate cessation of hostilities, unrestricted humanitarian access and withdrawal of Eritrean forces. There can be no military solution!” said Kindeya Gebrehiwot, a spokesman for the Tigray forces.

It all comes after the Ethiopian Army, with the help of allies such as neighboring Eritrea, captured several major rebel-held cities over the past week.

On Monday he managed to take over the city of Shire, considered a “key military stronghold” for the Tigrins, and on Saturday he took control of two other relevant cities: Aksum and Adwa. Now, from their new positions, the military is trying to control the neighboring towns, causing losses among the Tigrin troops. Advances that could complicate the negotiations.

“The fall of the two large cities at the hands of the Ethiopian Army and the ongoing changes on the battle front will make the planned peace dialogue difficult,” a foreign diplomat in Addis Ababa told the EFE agency on condition of anonymity.

The details of the negotiations have been kept under strict secrecy until now. In fact, the African Union refused to give the date of the beginning of the dialogue and to answer other questions from journalists about it. Something that is mainly due to the fragility of the negotiations.

“The process needs to be as inclusive as possible to prevent potential spoilers from destroying the entire process. Because in previous attempts, not only in Ethiopia but also in similar processes, the African Union has not been as inclusive as it should have been and that ended up invalidating any agreement that had been reached,” said Hassan Khannenje, director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. from Horn to the Reuters agency.

The talks were supposed to start more than a month ago, but were delayed by both sides for logistical reasons.

A conflict that has devastated thousands of lives

The tension began in 2018, with the rise to power of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia, as a power struggle between the federal government and the regional authorities of Tigray, who had controlled the governing coalition for almost 30 years.

November 4, 2020 was the official start date of the war, when Ahmed ordered an offensive in response to an attack on a federal military base and following a sustained escalation of political tensions. The confrontation is complex, since it confronts various ethnic groups and actors, such as Eritrea, interested in removing the Tigrin elite from positions of power.

Abiy Ahmed, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, initially denied having deployed troops in the area, but later acknowledged what he calls a “military operation to maintain the country’s territorial integrity.”

There are no official figures on the number of deaths that this conflict has left, but it is known that it has claimed the lives of thousands of people, displaced millions and left hundreds of thousands more on the verge of famine.

Some humanitarian organizations, such as Amnesty International, accuse the Ethiopian Executive of collusion with actors who have carried out ethnic cleansing against the Tigrins.

With violations of the DD. H H. widespread, “Federal Ethiopian forces systematically expelled several hundred thousand Tigrin civilians from their homes through threats, unlawful killings, sexual violence, mass arbitrary detentions, looting, forcible transfers and denial of humanitarian aid”, supports the organization.

In addition, the Ethiopian Executive has also denied humanitarian access to the area and journalistic coverage, making it impossible to tell what is happening in the region and how serious the matter is.

In this context, the peace talks are quite a challenge and are preceded by a truce broken by both parties. Experts also fear that the non-binding aspect of the African Union’s rulings will spell failure for the deal.

“Any agreement that cannot be enforced through incentives and sanctions is at risk of being violated by the parties,” Khannenje said.

However, for the thousands of Tigrin and Ethiopian civilians who have been caught up in the dispute, this development offers a ray of hope.

With Reuters, EFE and local media