The good, the bad and the ugly: These are the three inflation scenarios for 2025

Little growth with stability

In this base scenario, GDP growth is projected at 1.0% annually and a reference rate of 8.0% at the end of 2025. General inflation would be 4.05%, while underlying inflation would be 3.90%.

These levels reflect lower pressure on service prices and a decrease in supply shocks in agricultural and energy products.

Economic stagnation and rate cuts

In scenario B, Monex foresees GDP growth in a range of -0.5% to 0.5% and a reference rate reduced to 7.0%.

Under these conditions, general inflation would reach 3.30%, with an underlying inflation of 3.29%. Which reflects an environment of greater economic slowdown that could limit inflationary pressures.

However, in the merchandise sector, “prices could rebound due to the recent exchange rate trend and potential depreciation episodes in 2025, driven by trade tensions with the United States and a lower attractiveness of the carry trade.” , explains the analysis.

Economic rebound with monetary caution

In the third scenario, GDP growth is estimated between 2.0% and 2.5%, with a reference rate of 8.75%.

But if this scenario of economic rebound materializes, it is expected that general inflation would rise to 5.12%, while underlying inflation would be 4.39%, due to greater demand.

Risks due to climatic phenomena

The analysis also points out that there is an upward risk for non-core inflation in 2025, due to weather phenomena that could reduce the supply of fruits and vegetables.

It will be important to closely monitor the behavior of agricultural supply during the 2024-2025 winter season. According to CONAGUA, 16 cold fronts are expected between December 2024 and January 2025, exceeding the average of 14 recorded in said months in previous years.

Likewise, it will be key to observe the possible appearance of the La Niña phenomenon (there is a 57.0% probability that it will materialize in December 2024, according to CONAGUA). Considering the previous points, we estimate that agricultural inflation will remain in a range between 3.5% and 6.0% during 2025.