the Good Friday Agreement sails in the murky waters of Brexit

The Northern Ireland Protocol, the Windsor Framework Agreement, the so-called ‘sausage war’. These are the events that have made news in Northern Ireland since the Brexit vote in 2016.

Although in “relative peace” since the signing of the Good Friday Agreement in 1998, on March 28, the British services raised the terrorist alert level to “serious”. and heTension is highest in the province, which has been without a government for almost a year.

On Monday 10 April, police vehicles were firebombed during an illegal demonstration by Republicans in Londonderry (Northern Ireland’s second largest city), on the eve of the arrival of British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and US President , Joe Biden. Both leaders will spend several days commemorating the end of the bloody conflict, that claimed the lives of more than 3,500 people between 1968 and 1998.

Behind these tensions lies an indirect consequence of Brexit, which “has revived the tensions that existed in Northern Ireland since the signing of the agreement,” explains university professor Aurélien Antoine, director of the Brexit Observatory.

“The balance of 1998 was always fragile,” continues the researcher, “but Brexit acted as an accelerator, deepening pre-existing difficulties in Northern Ireland.”

To guarantee the peace obtained thanks to the disarmament of the Northern Irish paramilitaries and the withdrawal of British troops, the Good Friday Agreement – ratified by London and Dublin under the aegis of Washington – stipulates that Northern Ireland belongs to the United Kingdom, but that no physical border must separate it from Ireland. It also establishes a bipartisan government elected by proportional representation, tasked with ensuring a link between the Protestant and Catholic communities.

But Brexit and the adoption of the Northern Ireland Protocol in 2019 by the Government of Boris Johnson have upset this fragile balance.

A commitment rejected by the unionists

To avoid any customs barriers on Irish soil, the protocol stipulates that British goods must meet European standards as soon as they arrive in Northern Ireland. This initial control allows them to move freely throughout Ireland and the European Union.

The agreement effectively links the province to the single European market, creating an invisible border at sea between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. A solution that the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) considers intolerable.

In fact, these elected representatives perceive this customs border as a dangerous distance from the United Kingdom. Fiercely opposed to the protocol, they block the functioning of local political institutions, refusing to form a government with the republicans of Sinn Fein, until the protocol is withdrawn.

In an attempt to defuse the crisis, the British authorities and the European Union reached a new agreement in February 2023: the Windsor Framework.

If accepted by the DUP, it would allow for a relaxation of controls on goods, which would only apply to goods destined for the Irish market, not those that remain in Northern Ireland. The Northern Irish Parliament would also have veto power over EU rules that apply in Northern Ireland.

What future for Northern Ireland?

But it is not certain that this new proposal will be enough to convince the DUP, says Fabrice Mourlon, a professor at the Sorbonne-Nouvelle. Because Brexit has raised a broader and more complex question: that of the future of Northern Ireland itself.

“Beyond the question of the control of merchandise, the blockade of the unionists is explained by their fear that Brexit will lead to the reunification of Ireland,” stresses the specialist.

“Since the Protocol was launched, trade between Ireland and Northern Ireland has increased, to the detriment of trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. Therefore, unionists see the Protocol as a threat to their position in the Kingdom Kingdom and they fear that their province will move away,” he adds.

The party lost its dominant position for the first time in the 2022 general election in favor of the republican Sinn Fein. Another notable fact is that a non-denominational party, the Alliance of Northern Ireland, has risen to third place.

This is a sign, for Antoine, that Northern Ireland has changed and that it is time to review the balance established by the Good Friday Agreement to adjust it to the evolution of society.

“There has to be a big debate in Northern Ireland to change the Good Friday Agreement,” he says.

“The DUP is favored by the institutional balance of the agreement, while the population seems increasingly concerned about the economy, and less focused on identity and religious issues. The institutional balance of power must be questioned, as well as partition and the future of Northern Ireland. But this cannot be done without fundamental work, carried out with Ireland and London, and we are still a long way from that,” he adds.

On Sunday, however, Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar said Dublin, London and Belfast were working to get Northern Ireland’s governing institutions “up and running in the coming months.”

Meanwhile, the situation harms the population, which is experiencing the same economic crisis as the rest of the United Kingdom. Without a government, no public policy can be adopted to help them cope with their difficulties, and the plot seems far from over.

This article was adapted from its original in French.