The German extreme right, on the way to radicalization?

First modification: 05/06/2023 – 04:47

If there were elections in Germany next weekend, the extreme right would once again be the third most voted party in the country behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). That shows the average of all the surveys carried out during the first days of May of this year.

Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) lives its best moment in voting intention for five years. However, his current promotion could vanish in a very short time due to the organization that brings together his youth, Junge Alternative (JA).

The Federal Office for the Protection of Basic Law (BfV)which is in charge of protecting the democratic order in the country, categorized JA as a “right-wing extremist organization“and thereby placed it under special surveillance and, consequently, is in danger of being banned.

This organization was being monitored since 2018 by the State German as a result of his radical and xenophobic positions and his call to fight for an ethnically homogeneous society, among other expressions.

A speech that corresponds to the official definition of a right-wing extremist disseminated by that government office. This situation represents a problem for the AfD from various angles, especially from its reputation with the German electorate: Is the AfD a danger to democracy?

What does it mean to be classified as an extreme right in Germany?

After the end of World War II and with the subsequent constitution of Federal Germany in 1949, its main political leaders focused on build a system that prevents something like National Socialism from happening again. That is why internal control mechanisms were devised to be attentive to the appearance or development of political organizations that could subvert the democratic order or even put it at risk. One of them was the aforementioned Federal Office for the Protection of Basic Law (BfV).

There are not a few cases of groups or organizations that were detected and monitored by these mechanisms. Neo-Nazi, fascist or openly racist groups such as the Identity Movement, among others, are examples of this.. The evidence collected throughout the Investigation process may culminate in the banning of the group in question.

Precisely in this instance of review and surveillance, is from now on the youth organization that is associated with the extreme right in Germany, Junge Alternative (JA). And the problem for the party is that the ties with it are extremely close, beyond the fact that in November 2015 a federal congress of the AfD had officially disowned as an organic part of its structure.

Indeed, the JA leader, Hannes Gnauck, has been an AfD federal deputy since 2021. In addition, many members of the organization work with other representatives of that political force in the Federal Parliament and in some regional ones. They also participate in public actions or campaign events jointly.

The impact on AfD

Until now, the AfD leadership has limited itself to criticizing the decision to categorize the JA as an extreme right organization and has expressed its intention to take the case to justice. In a Press release signed by its leaders, Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, use the narrative of victimization accusing a persecution of opposition positions. At the same time, they minimize the violent expressions and the promotion of hatred that the JA displays.

From a technical point of view, the situation for the match has not changed. However, its obvious closeness to a group categorized as a far-right formation can harm it on various fronts. On the one hand, that 15% of the electorate, which in some regions even exceeds 25%, may stop seeing the AfD as a way of expressing their anger with the federal government for other current problems such as inflation, for example. Instead, the far-right force would come to represent a threat to the democratic order and thereby lose support.

On the other hand, both its organizational and mobilization structure could be affected. There are not a few officials who work in different estates and offices of the country’s public administration at different levels. In your case, collaborating, militating, and even showing sympathy for a political offer that is unable to distance itself from people and groups qualified as extreme right-wing can put your job in jeopardy. This situation would remove many of the incentives to actively support the party, thereby weakening its structures.

trust in democracy

Still, the previously mentioned narrative of victimization cannot be underestimated. As with other far-right expressions in the world, a relevant portion of the voters of this type of party support anti-government positions and are very prone to adhere to conspiracy theories. In this context, it is possible that the sectors most disenchanted with the country’s political course will find reasons to approach the AfD.

According to a study published in October 2022 from Infratest dimap, 88% of Germans consider democracy as “a good form of government”, while 9% consider the opposite. If we analyze this data by dividing Germany between East and West as when the Berlin Wall was still standing, this data changes. In fact, in the East, that is, in the ex-communist sector, the percentage of citizens who do not consider democracy as a good form of government amounts to 17%.

Taking into account that the AfD currently obtains between 25% and 30% of the votes in that eastern region, according to various surveysIt is worrying, but not necessarily unreasonable, to think of a scenario of polarization and deep disenchantment towards certain democratic institutions. Or even towards certain public policies aimed at building plural and open societies. There, extremist discourses such as JA’s would gain strength and eventually the ultra-right would feel legitimized in its radicalization process.