First modification:
The final result of the mid-term elections in the United States, which defines the composition of the country’s legislative bodies, is not yet known. One of the unknowns that depends on the balance between Republicans and Democrats in the House of Representatives and the Senate is the humanitarian and military aid from the United States to Ukraine to combat the Russian invasion.
Since February of this year, many Republicans have joined the policy of US President Joe Biden, a Democrat, of sending billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine after the Russian invasion. There are also many who have been reticent about the huge amounts of money sent to kyiv.
Since Vladimir Putin launched his offensive on Ukrainian soil, the US Congress has approved $60 billion in assistance to Ukraine. When the Senate greenlit more than $40 billion in military and humanitarian aid in May, only House Republicans voted against it.
In fact, Republican Kevin McCarthy, who could become the next speaker of the House of Representatives if his party definitively wins the majority of seats, warned in October that there would be no “blank check” for Ukraine while thousands of Americans are going through tough times economically.
“I think people are going to be in a recession and they’re not going to give Ukraine a blank check,” he told the Punchbowl News portal. “They just won’t.”
Democrats were quick to criticize McCarthy’s comments and it became clear that Republicans themselves do not share the same views on this issue. Some in the party advocate spending resources on domestic issues, while others criticize the tendency to isolate itself from the “America First” slogan, one of the legacies of the Trump era.
China, common ground for Democrats and Republicans
Support for Ukraine is not the only international political issue that generates discord. For example, Democrats and Republicans are also clashing over Iran strategy: Conservatives oppose Biden’s efforts to revive the 2015 multilateral nuclear deal, from which Trump withdrew.
However, there are some areas where understanding reigns, such as the relationship with China. Both Biden and his predecessor see Beijing as the main foreign policy challenge for the United States.
Bilateral tensions rose in August after Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, a de facto autonomous territory that Beijing claims as its own. McCarthy not only supported the trip but she even criticized not having been included in the visit.
“There is not much difference between the Republicans and the Biden administration when it comes to China policy,” said Anna Ashton, an expert on China at the Eurasia Group. “I think whatever Biden does on China, the Republicans will tell him he should be even tougher,” she added.
Investigations in Congress could complicate the domestic front
If the Republican Party wins control of at least one of the US legislative chambers, as seems likely, one of its most immediate actions could be to launch investigations and hearings on Democratic politicians.
“The intentions of the Republicans are not secret,” Kurt Bardella, a former Republican official and now Democratic strategist, told ABC News. “They see congressional oversight as the spearhead of their campaign for the 2024 presidential election.”
The hearings could range from auditing the chaotic withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan to the debate on the origin of Covid-19 or the businesses of Biden’s son, Hunter.
But in the end, the GOP doesn’t seem to have all the votes it takes to totally derail the White House agenda. “They don’t have the votes for a presidential veto. They’re also not going to have the power to push their own agenda,” said Brian Finucane, an analyst at the International Crisis Group.
“Yes, they will have the power to block initiatives of the Biden Administration and to promote supervision from Congress,” he concluded.
This article is a translation of its original English version.
