The mediation work of the American envoy Amos Hochstein continues. The dividing lines that are disputed and the strategic interests of the two countries. Washington wants to retain control of hydrocarbons in the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean, leaving out China and Russia. The internal struggle in view of the elections in Israel and the role of Hezbollah.
Beirut () – There is “progress” in the “indirect” negotiations for the litigation on gas extraction and maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel, but “there is still a lot of work to be done” before reaching an agreement. These were the words of the American mediator Amos Hochstein, special envoy and adviser to the US State Department on energy policy, in recent days. Hochstein made the remark at the end of a brief two-hour visit to Beirut, during which he met with Head of State Michel Aoun, Prime Minister Nagib Mikati and Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berry.
Hochstein’s statements would be normal if they had not occurred two years after the start of the US mediation -in October 2020. And whose objective should be to reach an agreement to demarcate the maritime borders between the two countries.
Through this mediation, a substantial reconciliation should be reached on the dividing lines drawn in the past by Lebanon and Israel. And it is complicated by the fact that Lebanon has maintained three different maritime borders over time. A first line dates from 2007 (Line 1), the result of negotiations with Cyprus, registered with the United Nations and recognized by Israel. However, two years later, Beirut realized that this line was the work of unqualified personnel, and that the correct demarcation is the so-called Line 23, which the Lebanese formalized in 2011 through Decree 6433 (see map). Therefore, the country of the cedars claimed those additional 860 square kilometers that separate lines 1 and 23.
Israel refused to recognize line 23. A mediation, initiated between 2010 and 2012 by Frederic Hoff, led to the definition of an additional median line, renamed the “Hoff Line”, granting Lebanon 55% of the 860 square km in dispute. However, Lebanon has maintained an active demand to claim control of the entire 860 square kilometres, which is at the heart of the dispute. In November 2020, indirect negotiations with Israel began in Ras Naqoura, under the joint supervision of the United States and the United Nations. In the middle of the mediation, a new twist took place, since the Lebanese army presented a document in which it affirmed that the true line that delimits the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the country of the cedars is Line 29. This grants Lebanon An additional 1,400 square kilometers of exclusive space. Highly questioned by Israel, this fact put an end to the indirect negotiations of Ras Naqoura (May 2021), which were replaced by the “liaisons” initiated by Amos Hochstein, which did not continue regularly.
Two important deposits
The stakes are high, especially for Lebanon, whose economy is in shambles. There are two important gas fields in the disputed area: Karish and Cana. However, the maximalist line renamed line 29 and drawn by the Lebanese army cuts through the Karish field, most of which is in Israel’s EEZ, while the Cana camp is deployed in the area between lines 23 and 29, both contested by Israel.
It should also be noted that Lebanon, at least officially, does not claim any rights to the Karish deposit. On the other hand, it would like to benefit exclusively from the Cana field, in accordance with a line that would be in practice a “reinforced line 23”. Furthermore, Lebanon categorically rejects any prospect of joint exploitation of the Cana deposit, but does not want to offer any compensation to Israel in exchange for exclusivity over the deposit in question. In short, Beirut rejects any step that could be equated to collaboration or normalization with Israel.
Hezbollah’s threats
Tensions between Lebanon and Israel on this issue intensified in June, with the arrival of a gas extraction and storage platform at the Karish field. The platform was built for the Jewish state by the London-based company Energean PLC. While the delimitation of the waters between Israel and Lebanon is still pending, the imminent start of gas extraction activities in Karish prompted Hezbollah to issue a warning to Israeli leaders. Three (unarmed) Hezbollah drones were dispatched to the platform area. “I prefer war to starvation,” said the Hezbollah secretary general, convinced that the United States is behind the events and is holding the strings.
In response, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz warned on August 22 that a Hezbollah attack on Karish could trigger a new war between his country and Lebanon. For its part, Hezbollah clarified that, in terms of the delimitation of maritime borders, it remains linked to the official decisions of the Lebanese institutions, which it does not claim or intend to replace in the negotiations.
In the background of this conflict is, of course, the control of hydrocarbon resources in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean region. It should be noted that Hochstein was part of the delegation that accompanied US President Joe Biden during his recent visit to Saudi Arabia in July this year. In an interview with the channel CNBCHochstein himself confirmed that the United States is moving to try to keep China and Russia away from the energy resources available in the region. At the same time, it is preparing for a transition to renewable energy, as part of a process that, however, may take several decades to complete. Therefore, the immediate objective of US policy is to rid Europe of its excessive dependence on Russian gas, something that was made clear by the war in Ukraine, while keeping distributor prices at reasonable levels for the US consumer.
Are the Naqoura colloquiums resumed?
All in all, it is difficult to determine at what point Hochstein’s mediation is, since the details are unknown, at least for the moment. “I have a positive feeling after what I heard today and after the discussions we have had, but there is still a lot to do,” said the US mediator after his meetings with the Lebanese authorities. For his part, Berry proposed the resumption of the indirect Ras Naqoura negotiations between Israel and Lebanon, under UN supervision, which were interrupted in May 2021.
If this latest proposal is accepted, it could be important because it would ease tension in the region by neutralizing Hezbollah’s threats to the Jewish state. The resumption of these talks would deprive the pro-Iranian party of any pretext to attack Israel unilaterally. This, if it were the case that the extraction of gas from the Karish field began before the official recognition by Israel (and the United States) of the rights of Lebanon to exploit its wealth in the sea and the Cana field in particular. In this case, the Total and Eni companies would make a declaration of exploitation intentions, which would be equivalent to an international “green light” for the start of exploration in the Lebanese EEZ, as the Beirut government wants.
However, in this area, observers warn of possible surprises. One would be to lengthen the mediation to allow Israel to obtain advantages in the demarcation of the land borders between the two countries, especially at the level of Ras Naqoura. The other would be to prioritize the general elections in Israel (October 25, 2022, in theory) and use mediation to increase the ruling coalition’s chances against Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud rivals. Although they seem only details, these two points must be closely followed, as well as the possible reaction of Hezbollah.
‘DOOR TO THE EAST” IS THE ASIANEWS NEWSLETTER DEDICATED TO THE MIDDLE EAST.
DO YOU WANT TO RECEIVE IT EVERY TUESDAY IN YOUR EMAIL? SUBSCRIBE TO THE NEWSLETTER AT THIS LINK.
Add Comment