The Finns will decide this Sunday the future of Sanna Marin in an election marked by accession to NATO

Petteri Orpo’s formation has a 20-point lead in the polls

1 Apr. (EUROPE PRESS) –

The Finns will go to the polls this Sunday to decide the political future of the current Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, in the framework of parliamentary elections that have raised unprecedented interest at the international level in view of the country’s progress in its integration into NATO. .

Finland, which shares the largest border with Russia in the community block – some 1,300 kilometers – has undergone a radical change in relation to its historical neutrality as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has led to about 80 percent of the population to support the inclusion of the country in the Atlantic Alliance.

The current geopolitical situation has broadly shaped the electoral campaign, in which the main candidates have discussed the possibility of giving military aid to Ukraine to fight against Russian forces.

Marin, who became the world’s youngest head of government in 2019 at just 34, continues to enjoy a high level of popularity among Finns but now faces a tough race as polls point to a an increasingly close result when it comes to gaining the greatest possible number of the 200 seats at stake.

The centre-right National Coalition Party of Petteri Orpo, who was Finland’s deputy prime minister, currently leads by 20 points in the polls, while Riikka Purra’s right-wing Finns Party is almost even in voting intentions with the formation of Marin, the Social Democratic Party of Finland.

Marin’s tenure, which took office after the resignation of Antti Rinne over the controversial management of the Finnish postal service strike, has been defined by the coronavirus pandemic and the war in Ukraine despite criticism leveled against him. for a video released in 2022 in which the prime minister is seen dancing with friends and ‘influencers’.

However, his approval rating has not been seriously affected and remains relatively high despite the popularity of his political rivals. A survey carried out by the newspaper ‘Helsingin Sanomat’ last December indicates that 64 percent of the population feels that she has done a “very good job” or a “fairly good job” as head of government. This figure rises to 69 percent among the women surveyed.

MAIN RIVALS

Among Marin’s main rivals is Orpo, 53, a figure who seeks to position his formation as a “more responsible” option than the Social Democrats, whom he accuses of leaving the country mired in huge debt. Although his formation and Marin’s could form a coalition, this idea was already discarded after the parliamentarians four years ago.

In this sense, the Finns Party aspires to break in and win a surprise victory, according to some experts, who point out that its replacement could be a woman, who could reach an agreement with the National Coalition to form a government.

Finnish politics, however, is severely fragmented, and the government currently has partners such as the Center Party, the Vede League and the Left Alliance, and the Finnish Swedish People’s Party.

It is precisely due to the way the Finnish political system works that there is a wide possibility that no party will win more than a fifth of the votes, which will lead the winning party to launch a series of negotiations to gain supporters and unblock the executive formation.

At the moment, the authorities estimate that close to 30 percent of voters have already sent their ballots in advance within the framework of a period that opened on March 22 and closed on Tuesday.

NATO JOINING

Marin has gained notoriety at home for putting Finland on the path to NATO membership, but also for pushing Sweden in the same direction. This Thursday, just three days before the elections, the Turkish Parliament has finally ratified Helsinki’s entry into the Alliance, which could boost the candidacy of the Social Democrats.

Thus, the Turkish deputies have removed what was the last obstacle to Finland’s accession to the bloc after Hungary did the same by ratifying the accession protocol on Monday.

The vote, which has passed unanimously in the Turkish Parliament, will allow Finland to become the thirty-first state of the Alliance, which seeks to increase protection and security on its eastern flank as the war in Ukraine progresses.

As a full member, Finland will now be able to benefit from article 5 of the treaty, which commits states to act in mutual defense in the event of an attack against some of its members. In addition, its inclusion will allow, according to experts, to secure the Baltic Sea area in defense of countries such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Marin, who has insisted that Finland “is with Sweden now and in the future to support its accession” to NATO, could thus see her candidacy strengthened to end a process that has made her the person who paved the way for Finland to NATO.