the fertility rate falls to less than 2 children per woman

The Philippines thus joins the group of Asian countries that are below the generation replacement rate. However, a true demographic decline is not expected in the short term. Ten years ago, the indicator stood at 3. The impact of development is a matter of debate, but the true causes of the slump between 2017 and 2022 still need to be investigated.

Milan () – While the world population exceeds 8 billion, the fertility rate is plummeting in the Philippines. However, with a current population of 111 million – which grew by 322.7% between 1960 and 2021 – the archipelago will have to wait to see a significant demographic decline.

The average number of children per woman of reproductive age (15-49 years) fell to 1.9, just below the replacement threshold of 2.1. This is a true collapse for this indicator, taking into account that in 1973 the figure stood at 6 and only 10 years ago at 3. Worldwide, the number of births per woman is 2.3.

The data published by the National Demographic and Health Survey are significant. First, they show that the Philippines has joined the group of Asian countries whose fertility rates are below generation replacement level: South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. However, the process in the Philippines is much more gradual. In Vietnam, for example, the rate was 2.1 in 2010 (according to UN estimates) and fell to 1.9 as early as 2002.

Official demographic programs see this as a positive development, as they tend to consider population growth in relation to available resources and employment and well-being opportunities. The competent authorities will not only have to question themselves about the reasons for the collapse registered between 2017 and 2022 and investigate them further. They will also have to carefully consider the effects of declining birth rates on the future prospects of an island nation full of contradictions and often without clear development strategies.

At the regional level, the race for economic primacy could lead to India playing the “demographic card”, given that the average age of its population is much lower than that of China. And although the latter would reach a population peak next year, the failure of its birth-boosting policies – after decades of imposition of the one-child policy – could lead to its aging population, a fear that China shares with many other countries.