Macron’s decision to call new legislative elections has been described as bold and reckless. In reality, it is a calculated risk with potentially greater rewards than inaction.
The results of the European elections surprised Europe with the rise of far-right parties in the French country. The National Rally would obtain about 31% of the votes, more than double that of President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party, with 15%. Macron immediately announced: “I have decided to give you back the choice of your future parliamentarian by voting. Therefore, I dissolve the National Assembly tonight,” calling for quick legislative elections for June 30 and July 7. This rare maneuver, like a King Arthur reinserting Excalibur to test the trust of the gods, last took place in 1997.
Will a far-right government lead one of the largest members of the EU precisely during the Paris Olympics? Macron’s decision to call new legislative elections has been described as bold, reckless and desperate. In reality, it is a calculated risk with potentially greater rewards than inaction. The extreme right will most likely not win the French legislative elections.
What would happen if Macron’s strategy were successful?
It would counter the narrative that the far right is taking over France. Today’s headlines point to this trend as irrevocable. By turning to voters, Macron aims to show that the results of the European elections do not reflect the broader pro-European political sentiment in France. This move could also mobilise those who are concerned about the rise of the far right, serving as a call to action and significantly slowing the far right’s momentum both in the EU and around the world.
The National Rally – known as the National Front until 2018 – already secured first place in the 2019 European Parliament elections and, before that, in 2014. But the far right historically struggles to reflect its success in the EU in the French national elections. If we look at the popular vote, in the 2019 European elections, the National Rally obtained a total of 5,286,939 votes. However, three years later, in the French legislative elections, it only obtained 3,589,269 votes, a decrease of 32.1%.
Using the same scale, the 7,765,944 votes on June 9 would be reduced to 5,272,250. In 2022, the winner (Ensemble) collected 8,002,419 votes, and in 2017, LREM won with 7,826,245 votes. Macron is betting that the National Rally will not find 2.5 million additional voters in less than a month. There are much more complex (and precise) modeling strategies, but the main point is that replicating this victory at the French level is unlikely and would represent a seismic political change.
It’s not one assault on the ring, it’s two
The difference between the election results in the EU and those in France is due to the different voting systems. The French two-round electoral system for legislative elections is a major obstacle for non-traditional parties. Although these parties can obtain good results in the first round, when the traditional parties are divided, a change occurs in the second round. Here, voters on the left and right often rally around more moderate candidates to prevent a victory for the extremes, a strategy known as the “Republican Front.” Despite gaining positions, the far right would have difficulty building the broad coalition necessary to win in the final round. In French parliamentary elections, results are decided locally in 577 constituencies, favoring parties with broad and evenly distributed support. The National Rally may dominate specific regions, but not achieve the wide distribution of votes necessary to win several seats.
Larger parties not only have more uniform support, but also more resources to field strong, locally recognised candidates in all constituencies, increasing their chances of securing a majority. The National Rally will have difficulty quickly finding competitive candidates in all constituencies. Moreover, there are peculiar reasons why French voters might lean to the far right in the European elections but opt for moderation at the national level. Economic issues, where Macron’s party is strong, dominate national elections and influence undecided voters. Moreover, the European Parliament’s perceived low impact on everyday life makes EU elections an opportunity to cast protest votes with minimal consequences for the country. This is true in France and Europe more broadly, but Bardella’s notable absence in Strasbourg amplifies this low-risk perception. However, the path to becoming prime minister and governing is much steeper. Macron is hoping to catch the National Rally off guard and highlight the inconsistencies in its programme.
What happens if the National Group wins?
The growing influence of the far right in French politics and in Europe in general cannot be downplayed. These parties have capitalized on a wave of discontent among voters dissatisfied with the current government’s policies on economic development, immigration and security. What if, against all odds, the National Group wins and comes to govern? So Bardella and Le Pen will be in the driver’s seat. It is much more difficult than being in the opposition. If he governs badly, he will suffer a huge setback in the 2027 elections. And if he governs effectively and solves all economic, social and environmental problems, then we will all live happily ever after. So, even in this scenario, Macron’s strategy could be a winner. Although difficult to predict any ending, this is a great chess move by President Macron. Whether it succeeds or not, it’s a much more calculated move than it seems.
Article translated from English from the website of CEPS.
Activity subsidized by the Ministry of Foreign and Global Affairs.
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