The far right can achieve an absolute majority despite strategic retreats

Data. In the first round of the legislative elections held last Sunday, National Rally (RN) and its allies obtained 10,442,724 votes; the left, united in the New Popular Front (NFP), 8,6010,932 votes; the majority loyal to President Emmanuel Macron, 6,709,555 votes; and The Republicans (LR, close to the EPP), 2,256,283 votes.

There were candidates from outside the major far-right parties (377,000 votes), far-left parties (367,000 votes), centrists (204,000 votes) and right-wing parties (604,000 votes). And finally, regionalists (150,000 votes).

[Le Pen gana la primera vuelta y Macron y Mélenchon piden votar contra la extrema derecha]

If the legislative elections were governed by the single-constituency proportional system of the European elections with one round, today we would know how many deputies each group has. But The legislative elections in France are held by the single-member majority system with two rounds in 577 constituencies.. As if they were 577 mini presidential elections.

The two candidates who received the most votes in the first round go on to the second round, as well as those who obtained more than 12.5% ​​of the votes in relation to the electoral roll of each constituency. When abstention exceeds 50%, there are hardly any triangular elections (when there are three candidates who reach the second round in a constituency), as in 2017 (one) or 2022 (eight). But last Sunday, participation exceeded 68%. So This time there are 306 triangular and six quadrangular! RecordIf we add the duels between just two candidates, there are still 501 constituencies to be decided.

On Sunday, 76 candidates were elected by exceeding 50% of the votes: 38 from RN and one ally, 32 from the left (20 rebels, 5 socialists, 4 environmentalists and three communists), two Macronists, two independent candidates and one right-winger.

Candidates who have made it to the second round have until 6pm on Tuesday to decide whether to stay or withdraw. Normally, this leads to negotiations (and horse-trading) until the last minute. On Monday evening, the president of the RN (and aspiring prime minister), Jordan Bardella stated that they were talking to the Republicansa party that has officially stated that it will not withdraw nor give instructions to its voters.

Because, of course, it is not enough to simply withdraw your candidate, the normal thing is to ask your supporters to vote for another one. To prevent the victory of someone you consider to be a danger to democracy. He opened fire on Sunday night. Jean-Luc Mélenchonwhich has pledged to withdraw all its third-placed candidates in all constituencies where Le Pen and Bardella’s RN received the most votes.

Thus, for example, the rebellious candidate of the NFP Noah Gauchard (23.16%) withdrew to prevent Noah Calbrix (RN), which received the most votes in the first round (36.26%), will beat the former prime minister in the second round Elizabeth Borne (28.93%) in Calvados. The Trotskyist leader of Workers’ Struggle roared: “Is Madame retirement at 64 now the retaining wall against RN? This is how left-wing politicians sell out workers. And then they will dare to lecture people and lament the depoliticisation.” We will see on Sunday, but I think Borne has a tough time.

[El hundimiento del centro deja a Francia a merced de los extremos en la segunda vuelta de las legislativas]

On the contrary, the Prime Minister, Gabriel Attalshould not be in any trouble after obtaining 44% of the votes in Hauts-de-Seine last Sunday…

The numbers are in favour of Marine Le Pen’s far right… because it won more votes last Sunday. Between the RN and its allies of the former LR president, Eric Ciotti, there are 443 candidates in the second round. Of these, 260 finished in first place and 180 exceeded 40% of the votes. They are spread across all the regions of France except Paris and other major cities.

The NFP left has managed to qualify 414 candidates for the second roundof which 128 received the most votes in the first round. Macron’s supporters ranked 321 candidates for the second round, of which only 68 came first.

The classic right is on the edge of the precipice because it only finished first in 19 constituencies. When Bardella talks about a government of national unity with personalities outside his party, it is clear that he is thinking of these shipwrecked right-wingers…

How to clear the triangular

In the 306 possible triangular elections, RN has the most voted candidate in 132And this is where the withdrawal of third-place finishers can play a very important role. The left has 129 ‘third-place finishers’ and the Macronists 90. The former are in favour of withdrawing them.

But the Macronists do not have a common position. Some, like the Prime Minister and (it seems) Macron himself, want to withdraw them all. Others, like the centrist François Bayrouand former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, They believe that each case should be studied. Because they (and Macron until the day before yesterday) are repudiated by both the extreme right and the extreme left.

They will surely encounter the same difficulties when asking their supporters who finished third to withdraw from the race to prevent RN from winning, as when the left opposed the pension reform that the centrist Executive ended up pushing through with more pain than glory after months of tough opposition in Parliament and on the streets. Bruno Le Maire He declared on Monday that he was happy with their withdrawal to facilitate the victory of “some social democrat”, but not of a disobedient loyal to Melénchon.

Last night, The World had recorded 179 withdrawalsOf these, 121 were from the left and 56 from the presidential camp. This afternoon at 6 o’clock we will know how many triangular ballots remain and the final map of the confrontations for the second round.

And we will see if the far right is close to returning to power in France for the first time since 1940.. Although the circumstances of 2024 will be very different. Because rhetoric is one thing and electoral mathematics is another.