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BRUSSELS Dec. 13 () –
The foreign ministers of the European Union will address this Monday the relationship with the new Islamist authorities in Syria, led by the jihadist organization Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), after the fall of the Bashar al Assad regime, ever since European diplomacy sees relevant to maintain contacts and pass messages about community expectations after coming to power in Damascus.
The first meeting of the EU High Representative for Foreign Policy, Kaja Kallas, with the ministers of the field will be marked by the dazzling offensive of rebels and jihadists that has managed to overthrow the Syrian regime, an episode that the EU has applauded because it means that the Syrians “free themselves” from a dictatorship that for 13 years “terrorized” its own citizens in the framework of a civil war.
So far the EU has opted for prudence in the transition period that is opening in Syria and awaits the first steps after the arrival of the veteran jihadist Abu Mohamed al Golani, leader of HTS, an organization included in the list of terrorist groups of the EU.
In any case, different diplomatic sources recognize the importance of having contacts “as soon as possible” at the working level with the new authorities in Damascus, insisting that caution must be combined to act in such a volatile environment while maintaining a “dynamic” approach to be present in the post-Al Assad scenario, in the face of the strength of Turkey and Israel and the military presence of the Russians and Americans.
“The important thing now is how the authorities in Damascus behave on issues such as the protection of minorities, the treatment of previous leaders and whether they pacify the country,” said a senior EU official, insisting that the bloc will judge the new leaders for their actions after the messages so far are hopeful.
In Brussels they recognize that leaders like Al Golani “have a past” that must be “tested”, but they emphasize that the provisional government in Idlib, a rebel stronghold in Syria under the command of HTS, has acted in recent years “in a manner far removed from jihadism.” and terrorism”. “We will see if this is transferred to 48% of the territory it controls,” he noted.
“Probably if we want to talk to Syria it will be impossible to avoid contacts (with HTS) we must discuss how to do it and under what conditions,” explains another diplomatic source. That is why the EU leans towards a pragmatic position, taking into account its interest in Syria being a stable country, since fifteen countries in the bloc link this episode to the possible return of Syrian refugees to their country of origin. The EU also hopes that its ambassador in Damascus, who has been active in Beirut for years, can return to have a presence and impact on the future of Syria.
The conditions that they indicate in the community capital to interact with the new Syrian authorities have to do with respecting territorial integrity, the treatment of minorities and the fight against terrorism, but they insist that more than a series of requirements it is about seeing the intentions of the transitional leaders installed in Damascus.
In this context, the summit between countries of the region in Jordan stands out, which the High Representative will attend and which will serve to promote support for the transition in Syria with the help of neighboring countries that are most impacted by the turn of events. .
Less debate is generated by the attitude of Israel which, coinciding with the fall of Al Assad, has launched an offensive against Syrian military objectives and occupied part of the ‘buffer zone’ in the Golan Heights. “If you are in Tel Aviv and you see that groups that have their origins in Al Qaeda come to power in the neighboring country,” acknowledges a diplomatic source with some understanding of Israeli actions.
FUTURE PLANS FOR UKRAINE
The meeting of foreign ministers will also discuss the complex situation that Ukraine is going through with the advance of Russian troops in the east of the country and when the return of Donald Trump casts doubt on the West’s continued support for kyiv and highlights imminent negotiations of peace, ever the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has designated 2025 as the year to end the conflict and the idea of a military presence on the ground that ensures a potential ceasefire hovers over the idea.
Although this idea raised by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, has already been discussed with his counterparts in the United Kingdom and Poland, there are doubts about how a European deployment can materialize, something that has generated rejection among other partners and that Warsaw ruled out. outright this week.
In diplomatic circles in Brussels they see the debate on the possible deployment of European soldiers as “inevitable”, Trump has always set himself the goal of achieving peace negotiations in Ukraine, although they assume that there is still a long way to go to know under what conditions the conversions will take place. and the eventual cessation of hostilities.
“We are at a conceptual level about things that need to be thought about if there is an agreement,” admits another source, although he points out that there are no detailed plans and for the moment Russian President Vladimir Putin has not shown any willingness to sit down. negotiate.
In any case, the 27 will insist on maintaining long-term support for kyiv in the face of the Russian offensive, a military support that the European Commission or NATO warn will have to be sustained over time regardless of whether the war is stopped in 2025. In this sense, European foreign ministers are expected to formally adopt the 15th round of sanctions against Moscow for the invasion of Ukraine, in a package focused on improving the efficiency of the sanctions imposed so far.
The EU takes steps against the ‘ghost fleet’, these are the ships from third countries that Russia uses to evade European sanctions on energy or technology trade that it then uses in its war against Ukraine. Specifically, sanctions are planned against 52 ships, 32 companies and 53 people involved in these maneuvers, including sanctions against entities from third countries such as China.
The measures will also affect North Korean leaders due to the deployment of troops in Russia to help the Russian Army in its aggression against the neighboring country. The EU launches the new sanctions regime against hybrid attacks by putting 19 people and entities on its ‘blacklist’.
SANCTIONS ON THE TABLE FOR GEORGIA
The democratic drift in Georgia after the repression of anti-government protests and the crisis opened by last October’s legislative elections marked by irregularities will also be on the table of the foreign ministers, who will discuss the option of applying sanctions against the ruling Georgian Dream.
The scenario in any case is not clear due to the opposition of Hungary and the doubts of other member states, diplomatic sources point out, while the EU will study the limitation of diplomatic visas for Georgian authorities, a measure that should first be proposed by the European Commission.
“We think that sanctions and measures must be taken against those responsible and regarding visas. But I honestly do not think it will be ready for Monday,” the sources have admitted, stressing that the important thing is that the local population does not pay the price for the decisions from Tbilisi, which announced that it was freezing EU accession negotiations until 2028.
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