“The European defense industry must move to a war economy model“. Only in this way will the EU countries be able to maintain military aid to Ukraine in the war of attrition that it is waging Vladimir Putin and at the same time replenish their own arsenals of weapons, which are at low levels precisely because of the assistance provided to kyiv, according to the diagnosis made by the Internal Market commissioner, the French Thierry Breton.
The reinforcement of the production capacity of the community arms industry is the main point on the agenda of the informal meeting of defense ministers of the 27 that is held this Wednesday in Stockholm, which is attended by Daisy Robles. The most urgent thing now is accelerate the supply to Ukraine of artillery ammunition so that it can stop an eventual spring offensive by the Kremlin.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksi Reznikovhas requested by letter to the EU the shipment of 250,000 projectiles per month, according to the FT. Reznikov writes that artillery plays a “crucial role in eliminating the military power of the enemy”. On average, Ukraine fires 110,000 155-caliber shells a month, a quarter of the amount used by Russia.
[El Estado Mayor ucraniano convence a Zelenski para defender Bakhmut pese al alto número de bajas]
In order to respond to the needs of kyiv and also of the Member States, the head of Community diplomacy, Josep Borrell has drawn up an action plan inspired by the Estonian proposals, but much less ambitious. Your newly re-elected Prime Minister, kaja kallashad proposed mobilizing 4,000 million euros to quickly send one million ammunition to Ukraine.
Borrell’s plan, to which EL ESPAÑOL has had access, is based on three pillars. The most immediate thing is to get the European governments to urgently send to Ukraine the howitzers they still have in their reserves. The EU will mobilize a new tranche of 1,000 million of euros from its Peace Support Fund to pay up to 90% of the cost of these munitions. So far, the 27 have already allocated 3.6 billion from the community budget to finance the supply of all kinds of weapons to kyiv.
Secondly, Borrell proposes launching a program for the joint purchase of ammunition. “The aggregate demand of Member States and Ukraine would provide an opportunity to place a massive order in order to send the industry a clear signal of demandwhich would allow it to increase its production capacity in a lasting and sustainable way throughout Europe”, argues the head of community diplomacy.
However, this proposal generates a whole series of questions and doubts. Firstly, there is no agreement on whether the purchase should be done centrally through the European Defense Agency (which would take several months) or if it is better to go for a “coalition of Member States”, a path that could go faster since some governments already have contracts with the industry for the supply of ammunition, according to diplomatic sources.
[Borrell avisa de que Ucrania está en peligro si la UE no acelera el envío de municiones]
It is also not clear how this joint purchase would be financed. The Peace Support Fund (which in theory is not only intended for kyiv but for the whole world) only has a final tranche of 1,000 million euros left. Some countries are in favor of exhausting it, while others are betting on creating a new instrument specifically for Ukraine.
Finally, there is also controversy as to whether whether or not to buy ammunition from non-EU countries if there are not enough shells in Europe. Most Member States are in favor of exploring this possibility, starting with partner countries. “But there are a couple of countries that maintain that European money cannot be used to buy non-European material,” say the sources consulted.
The third pillar of Borrell’s plan consists of expanding the production capacity of the European industry, using a model similar to advance purchase contracts that were used with the vaccine against Covid-19.
“With rapidly dwindling stocks, European production almost at full capacity due to orders from Member States or third countries, and already skyrocketing prices, it may be necessary additional industrial policy measures by the EU to ensure a rapid increase in production capacity”, says the High Representative.
“The overall goal should be to support (including supported by the EU budget where possible) to industrial manufacturers in reducing their delivery times, in solving possible bottlenecks or factors that may delay or prevent the supply and production of certain critical products, and in increasing their production capacity”, Borell explains.
The plan of the head of community diplomacy will be discussed again at the joint meeting of foreign and defense ministers scheduled for March 20 in Brussels. The final decision must be taken by the heads of state and government of the 27 at the summit on March 23 and 24.
