Related news
“It is not the first time that we could face a government with the participation of extremist movements, either from the extreme right or from the extreme left. It is not a new phenomenon in the EU“, says the Commissioner for Justice, Didier Reynders. The European Union is watching with concern the elections that Italy is holding this Sunday, in which all the polls give victory to the right-wing coalition formed by the Brothers of Italy of Giorgia Melonithe League of Matteo Salvini and the Forza Italia of Silvio Berlusconi.
Since Brothers of Italy is the largest party on the right, the new prime minister will most likely be the post-fascist Meloni. Both she and Salvini have been outspoken Europhobes in the past and have flirted with the idea of leaving the euro. The two – and also Berlusconi – have at some point expressed admiration for Vladimir Putin.
The fear in European capitals is that the new Italian government sabotages the sanctions against the Kremlin at the most delicate moment of the war in Ukraine. Or that Rome embarks on a drift of budgetary control that triggers a new debt crisis in the eurozone (Italian debt exceeds 150%). Brussels already has a bad experience in this area: in 2018 it had to knock down the budgets of the populist government of the 5 Star Movement and La Liga because they represented an “unprecedented” violation of the Stability Pact.
[Giorgia Meloni, la posfascista de padre ‘comunista’ que podría gobernar Italia en otoño]
Despite the frequent outbursts during the campaign, Meloni has made an effort in recent weeks to placate Brussels’ concerns and soften its more radical profile. In its joint program, the right-wing coalition undertakes to maintain its support for European integration and to respect the commitments made within the framework of NATO to support Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.
“It is difficult to say what this will mean for the cohesion of the EU. Salvini has been more critical of the EU on migration policy or with regard to Russia. Meloni sounds very different. We will have to see what happens. In the campaign some things are said, but the reality later in the Government is different. We must be cautious in assuming that Italy is going to change suddenly on very important issues such as the war in Ukraine or energy,” says a European diplomat.
“European leaders are preparing for a more troubled phase in the relationship between the EU and Italy. I don’t think they are underestimating the potential problems. But it is also important not to overdo them. Meloni will try to appear tough on the EU, but in the end she will not want to risk losing the money from the Next Generation recovery fund,” Luigi Scazzieri, a researcher at the Center for European Reform.
“Italy is in a financial position so fragile that it cannot afford a confrontation with its EU partners. But there will be issues on which a Meloni government will make a lot of noise, such as migration or the defense of the interests of Italian companies,” says Scazzieri.
In fact, Italy is the main beneficiary of Next Generation aid, ahead of Spain, with 191.5 billion euros. In its program, the right-wing coalition announces that it will try to introduce modifications to the recovery plan, but always in an agreement with Brussels.
Commissioner for Economic Affairs, Paolo Gentiloni, warns that the margin of changes is very limited. And the European Central Bank (ECB) has already said that the implementation by Rome of the reforms demanded by Brussels is one of the conditions for activating the new risk premium control instrument: Italian debt is the one that has suffered the most since the outbreak of the war and the start of interest rate hikes.
[Polémica en Italia por el saludo fascista de un estratega y amigo de Giorgia Meloni]
In any case, the right-wing coalition that is preparing to govern Italy, despite the leadership of Meloni and the presence of Salvini, has the coverage of the European People’s Party (PPE), to which the president belongs Ursula von der Leyen. The president of the EPP, also German Manfred Weber, asserts the Europeanism of Berlusconi and his lieutenant Antoni Tajani, who has been commissioner and president of the European Parliament.
“I was positively surprised by the final program of the center-right coalition. It is very clear that he is in favor of European integration, he reaffirms the transatlantic cooperation with our American friends, his role in NATO and European values,” says Weber in an interview in Il Corriere della Sera.
“Meloni is a friend of the Hungarian Viktor Orbán, who has been expelled from the EPP, doesn’t that make you uncomfortable?” they ask. “I support Forza Italia, I don’t have to defend the other parties. The main thing is the coalition agreement with a common program: the pro-European and Atlanticist approach is very clear. There’s no question,” Weber replies.
The harshest criticism against Meloni in Brussels has been made by the Vice President of the Commission, Frans Timmermans, in his capacity as leader of the European Social Democrats. “Let’s speak clearly: I do not know sovereignists who are not against the European institutions. So no matter what they say today. The Polish Kaczynski, for example, is against Russia but also against Brussels and against the European institutions. The sovereignists do not tolerate doing things together,” he said in an interview with La Repubblica.
“I still have enormous faith in Italian democracy and its institutions. Instead, I am afraid of the social and moral agenda of the right. Think about what they say about women. I see that the radical right wants to reopen the debate on the right same-sex unions. This moral and social agenda would take us back at least thirty years“, Timmermans maintains.
Add Comment