The EU finds the ‘cryptonite’ to curb Orbán’s authoritarianism: economic pressure

The European Union has tried everything to stop the authoritarian drift of Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, which according to the European Parliament is no longer a full democracy but an “electoral autocracy”. Sanctioning procedures for attacks against judicial independence, freedom of the press or the rights of the LGBT community. The ‘nuclear option’ that could suspend the right to vote from Budapest to Brussels. Even a public anger from European leaders to Orbán.

None of these measures have been successful.. On the contrary, pressure from the EU has only served to strengthen the Hungarian Prime Minister, who won a new absolute majority in the elections last April. Orbán has kept challenging him even in the Ukraine war, displaying his closeness with Vladimir Putin. It has systematically slowed down sanctions against the Kremlin and has signed contracts with Moscow to obtain gas on advantageous termswhile Brussels claims to disengage from Russian fossil fuels.

However, in recent weeks the Commission on Ursula von der Leyen seems to have found the ‘cryptonite’ to annul the Hungarian Government (which Vox usually puts as a model of its policies): financial pressure. The plan recovery Next Generation from Hungary –whose endowment amounts to €7.2 billion– He has been paralyzed for more than a year.

[Bruselas propone congelar 7.500 millones de fondos europeos a Hungría por fraude y corrupción]

In addition, the Community Executive has proposed this Sunday to freeze another 7,500 million euros (a third of the regional funds allocated to Budapest for the period 2021-2027) for widespread fraud and corruption. It is the first time that Brussels has activated the mechanism that allows suspending European aid to Member States that systematically violate democratic principles.

A blockade of European aid that occurs in a context of serious economic crisis in Hungary. Growth is slowing and inflation has soared to 18.6%, one of the highest rates in the EU. Brussels expects activity to slow down markedly in the coming quarters in the Central European country due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, and that prices continue to rise.

Before this panorama, Viktor Orbán’s government has ended up bowing to pressure from Brussels. After a decade of ignoring, scorning or even flouting the EU’s requests and recommendations, Hungary has spent the entire summer negotiating with von der Leyen a package of measures to combat corruption and fraud and thus prevent the freezing of funds. Europeans.

Budapest offer came too late: the reforms have not yet been launched and the Commission was obliged to act before September 21 to meet the legal deadlines. Even so, the Government of Budapest still hopes to stop the clock in time and not lose any European aid.

[La Eurocámara tacha a Hungría de “autocracia electoral” y pide congelarle los fondos europeos]

“Hungary has made no commitments to mislead the Commission. We have made commitments that we know can be put into practice. Therefore, we are not going to suffer a loss of funds”, said this Sunday the Minister of Development, Tibor Navracsics.

What are the deficiencies and shortcomings in the management of European funds that Brussels denounces? The Community Executive maintains that Budapest manipulates the procedures for awarding public contracts to systematically favor the ruling party Fidesz and Orbán’s allies. That is, a purchase of favors by the Hungarian Government to stay in power in charge of community aid.

In an extraordinary press conference this Sunday, the Budget Commissioner, the Austrian Johannes Hahn, has denounced “systematic irregularities and deficiencies and weaknesses in public procurement; inadequacies in dealing with conflicts of interest and concerns regarding public interest trusts; deficiencies in the effectiveness of investigations and prosecutions in cases involving Union funds; and deficiencies in the anti-corruption framework”.

The Community Executive launched the procedure to freeze aid to Hungary last April. But the Orbán government refuted all criticism and did not offer any corrective measures to solve the problems denounced by Brussels. On July 20, Brussels sent a letter to Budapest detailing the amount of EU funds it was going to block. Only under this threat of losing 7,500 million subsidies, Hungary began a negotiation against the clock during the summer.

The result has been a package of 17 measures to combat fraud that Orbán offers to the EU. The most notable are the implementation of an anti-corruption office with reinforced independence and broad powers, the reform of the legislation on public contracts and the creation of a public registry of assets and income not only for ministers and secretaries of State, but also for Members of the Hungarian Parliament.

The problem is that all these initiatives are right now simple declarations of intent and have not yet been translated into concrete legislation. Hence, Brussels has gone ahead with its proposal to freeze 7,500 million euros to Hungary. Nevertheless, the Orbán government still has one last chance to circumvent EU sanctions.

The suspension of European aid must now be approved by the EU governments by qualified majority. In other words, no country – not even Hungary’s closest allies like Poland – can veto it alone. The Twenty-seven have a period of one month to make a final decision, which can be extended up to three months.

Budapest is now demanding an extension to give it time to implement its anti-corruption measures. His commitment is that the entire package is in force by November 19 at the latest. If these deadlines are met, the governments could still stop blocking the funds. The problem is that fewer and fewer people in Brussels trust Orbán.