The EPP wins the elections and the ultras rise, according to polls

The European Parliament makes a sharp turn to the right. He European People’s Party (EPP) is the big winner of the European elections that conclude this Sunday in the 27 Member States, while radical right and extreme right parties soar until it took almost 25% of the seats, according to the first aggregation released by the European Parliament itself based on estimates and exit polls. The ultras win in France and Austria and are second in Germany and the Netherlands.

The definitive results They won’t start getting to know each other until 11 at nighttime when the last polling stations in Italy close. A total of 360 million people Throughout the EU, 720 MEPs were called to the polls to elect (15 more than in 2019), that will determine the political orientation of the next legislature 2024-2029.

According to this first aggregation, the PPE (in which Von der Leyen is active) has won comfortably with 25% of the votes and 181 seats, 5 more than in the previous elections in 2019. In second position are the European Socialists (S&D), who would add 18.7% of the votes and a total of 135 seats, four less than in 2019. They fall the liberals of Renew (up to 82 seats, compared to the current 102) and the Greens (53 seats, compared to the current 72).

[Von der Leyen, Meloni y Le Pen: las tres mujeres de las que depende el futuro de la Unión Europea]

The big news is the rise of radical right forces. In their internal struggle, the winner is the group of European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR)led by the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloniand in which Vox and the Poles from Law and Justice are also active: they would get 9.8% of the votes and 71 seats, compared to the current 69.

The second far-right group in the European Parliament, Identity and Democracywhose boss is Marine Le Pen, is the one that rises the most with 62 MEPs (and 8.6% of the votes), compared to the current 49. In Identity and Democracy there are also the League of Matteo Salvinithe PPV of Geert Wilders or the Austrian FPÖ. Finally, in the Non-Registered group, Alternative for Germany (the second force in its country) wins 17 seats, while Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz would contribute another 9 deputies.

Although in the EU it is the national governments – and not the European Parliament – that monopolize a greater share of power and set the political direction, this shift to the right will complicate the approval of new green standards and the fight against climate change, as was already seen in the final stretch of the legislature. And it could translate into a additional tightening of immigration policy, the other priority that generates an absolute consensus between forces that are otherwise very divided among themselves. The worst scenario would be that the ultras achieve a blocking minority capable of paralyzing the European Parliament.

The first litmus test will be vote on the president of the Commission. Von der Leyen first needs European leaders to appoint her (by a qualified majority) at the summit on June 27 and 28. And it must then be ratified by an absolute majority (361 votes) in the new European Chamber, in a (secret) vote that will probably be held on July 18.

Popular, socialists and liberals (the ‘grand coalition’ that has supported him during his first term) would in principle add up to 398 votes, in principle sufficient for the election of Von der Leyen. But Party discipline does not prevail in Strasbourg and many defections. In 2019, the German was confirmed by a margin of just 9 votes.

According to exit polls, Olaf Scholz’s coalition government suffers a strong setback from voters. The Socialists are relegated to third position (with 14% of the votes and 14 seats), behind the Christian Democrats (who win with 29% of the votes and 30 seats) and Alternative for Germany.

In France, Marine Le Pen sweeps with 31.5% and 30 seats, double that of Emmanuel Macron’s liberal list (15% and 14 seats). The socialists are third (14% and 13 seats), a short distance from the president and ahead of the radical left of France Insoumise.

The FPÖ ultras win in Austria with 27% of the votes and 6 seats. They surpass the Christian Democrats, who obtain 23% of the votes and 5 MEPs, tied with the Socialists. In the Netherlands, the coalition of socialists and greens is in first position with 21% of the votes and 8 seats, while Geert Wilders’ far-right party has come in second with 17.7% and 7 seats.

The chamber of the European Parliament in Brussels has been transformed for election night on a large television set, with more than a thousand accredited journalists to follow the count live. As soon as the first data arrives, the president of the Commission is scheduled to appear, Ursula von der Leyenthe most powerful woman in Brussels and the one with the most at stake in the elections, as she aspires to a second term.