The drought in Mexico will affect the agricultural sector again this year

Of that total, the yield of white corn – which Mexico produces the most – would fall 10% compared to the previous cycle, to 21.89 million tons, while that of yellow – of which the country imports large quantities mainly to feed livestock – would rebound. a marginal 0.7%, to 3.24 million tons, after having fallen 4.5% in 2023, according to preliminary data.

Adverse weather conditions would continue to hit the sector, according to Sader. Last year, drought, pests and diseases that affected crops, livestock and poultry, as well as volatility and inflation in the prices of energy and raw materials, negatively impacted the productivity of the country’s agri-food sector.}

76% of the Mexican territory was under moderate to exceptional drought, which means, in the most severe category, crop losses or risk of fires, as well as water shortages in reservoirs, streams and wells, according to the classification of the National Water Commission (Conagua).

AccuWeather’s chief agricultural meteorologist, Dale Mohler, considered in a report that the rain may come too late for a successful harvest of corn and other crops in Mexico, which could lead to more demand for the cereal source from the United States, the largest supplier of imported grain.

“Sinaloa (…) and Jalisco (…) generate 37% of the national corn harvest,” Mohler said. “These two areas have been greatly affected by the drought,” she added.

Sinaloa, in northwest Mexico and with coasts on the Pacific, is the largest producer of white corn in Mexico. According to Sader’s expectations document, published this week, grain production will fall by 31% in the state, to 4.55 million tons, while in Jalisco, in the west, it would drop a marginal 0.7% to 2.74 million tons. tons.

Mexico is a key buyer of yellow corn from the United States, purchasing nearly $6 billion of the grain annually.

Mexico and the United States are in the middle of a dispute over the grain trade, which is currently being settled in a dispute settlement panel of the North American trade agreement, TMEC. A resolution from the panel is expected in the last quarter of the year.