Behind the reappearance of President Tokaev at the May 9 parade in Moscow are a series of questions about his fluctuating relationship with Putin. According to some analysts, the disagreements over Ukraine are only a “smokescreen”. But there are also those who claim that Russia already has its eye on the most “loyal” CTSO secretary, Tasmagambetov, to replace him.
Moscow () – The unexpected presence of Kazakh President Kasym-Žomart Tokaev at the May 9 parade in Red Square has raised several questions about the relationship between Russia and Kazakhstan, quite ambiguous and contradictory in the year and more that has elapsed since the protests in Almaty Square in January 2022, the invasion of Ukraine and the Russian claims to the northern territories of Kazakhstan. Tokaev has distanced himself from Putin on several occasions, including in direct and public meetings, although he has later reaffirmed the historical friendship with the Russians, which today brings numerous economic advantages to the Central Asian steppes.
The change of plans of the head of the Akorda – the presidential palace in Astana – suggested the need to reaffirm his own importance in relations with Russia and the stability of his role within the country, not only to align himself with the other satraps of the region but also to deny the “substitution” plans attributed to the Kremlin.
Kazakh political scientist Akhas Tazhutov published an article in Eurasia review, in which he claims that Moscow is boosting a senior official, the current CSTO (Eurasian military alliance) Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov (to the right of Tokaev in the image of above) as a possible alternative to Tokaev. In fact, Kazakhstan has adhered to international sanctions against Russia, although in practice it turns out to be the main way to circumvent them, and it finds itself in a delicate situation of conflict between East and West that necessarily requires a more stable solution.
The divergences between the two presidents over the war in Ukraine have sometimes given the impression of just a facade, appearing at odds to cover Moscow’s de facto control over the situation in Kazakhstan, with many even claiming that the “big reforms” of Tokaev are just a smokescreen. As Tazhutov explains, “Kazakhstan does not control internal information; from television to publications to the Internet, most of the media is in the hands of the Russians, who defend the ruling elite to ensure their own interests.”
The political scientist believes that this scenario is coming to an end and that Moscow wants Astana to stop being a “hidden partner” and become a public and faithful ally, to show the West that it is the counterpart of “satanic” Ukraine, enslaved by the enemy. Indeed, Kazakhstan cannot continue to play “gray market” ambiguities in favor of Russia for much longer, lest it incur secondary sanctions. The next step after the war, whatever the outcome, should be for Moscow the proclamation of the unitary state with Belarus and Kazakhstan, the realization of the new Eurasian empire.
That is why it is necessary to replace Tokaev, a “transitional” figure to throw dust in the eyes, who has never truly reached the stature of an independent leader. According to Tazhutov, the current CSTO secretary has long been considered “the best possible heir to Nazarbaev, who enjoys strong support inside the country, especially from the oil oligarchs of the western regions.” In fact, Tasmagambetov is also the only high-ranking official, apart from Tokaev, who knows the Kremlin’s top officials.
Along with the CSTO, analysts are also looking at the prospects of the SCO, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which brings together Russia and China to ensure the security of Central Asia. The war in Ukraine has also changed the balance in this sector where Russia has traditionally been dominant, while China’s role is now increasingly influential. Kazakhstan tries to stay in line with its “multi-vector” policy and not lean too far towards Beijing, or perhaps even Japan, but Russia finds it necessary to reassert its guardianship over the entire region, starting with Kazakhstan.
