The CIS gives the PSOE an advantage of more than four points over the PP and records increases for Vox and Sumar

The first barometer of the CIS (Centre for Sociological Research) of the political year, the first estimate data after the agreement on financing in Catalonia between PSC and ERC and the investiture of Salvador Illa, indicates that the advantage of the PSOE over the PP has increased to 4.5 points. And it does so because of the fall that José Félix Tezanos’ centre attributes to the PP, which has plummeted 1.7 points since July, while the socialists remain stable.

The survey also shows that Vox is taking advantage of this fall, that Sumar is recovering after plummeting in July and that Alvise Pérez’s platform is gaining a few tenths and continuing its rise, albeit slowly, since it was included in the CIS estimates.

The CIS resumes its barometers after the summer break and indicates that the PSOE would win the general elections if they were held now with 33% of the votes, just one tenth more than a month ago. Although it is below some of the most optimistic estimates of the CIS, with this data the socialists would obtain a better result than in the 2023 elections (31.7%) and enjoy a wide margin over the PP in this survey.

The Popular Party has suffered a significant drop of 1.7 points. It would now obtain 28.5% of the votes compared to 30.2% in July, far from the 33.1% in the 2023 elections. This result leaves Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party 4.5 points behind the PSOE and without the possibility of competing for first place for now.

Vox benefits from this fall. Santiago Abascal’s party rises from 12.2% in July to 13.1% in September – above the 12.4% of the last general elections. Vox thus collects part of the voters that the CIS takes away from the PP and does not suffer a great impact from the entry of Alvise Pérez, whose party rises two tenths and is placed at 2.9%.

The CIS also brings good news for Sumar. Yolanda Díaz’s platform had suffered a strong setback in recent months due to electoral failures, especially in the European elections, and now sees how it goes from 6.6% in July to 7.8% in September. However, it is still far from its result in July 2023, when it disputed third place with Vox by obtaining 12.3% of the votes.

In his case, the entry of Podemos has meant a reduction in his electoral aspirations. The party led by Ione Belarra has fallen by four tenths this month but remains at 3.6%, one of the best figures since they broke with Sumar.

At the bottom, ERC would obtain 1.4% of the votes, one tenth more than Junts, and EH Bildu would beat PNV with 1.1% compared to 0.9%.

The data on vote transfers show that the PP has the most loyal electorate, as they would repeat 83.9% of their voters, five-tenths above the PSOE percentage. Vox, for its part, retains 76.7% of its voters from 23J and loses voters equally to the PP and Se Acabó la Fiesta, Alvise Pérez’s party. Sumar only manages to retain 54.7% of its voters and loses 22.8% to Podemos and 13.2% to the PSOE.

As for those who chose to abstain on June 23 and would now vote, the majority did so for the PSOE, 16.4%, followed by the PP (12%) and Vox (11.6%).

Sanchez repeats as the best rated

The President of the Government, Pedro Sánchez, remains the most highly rated politician with a score of 4.28, although the Second Vice President and Minister of Labour, Yolanda Díaz, narrows the gap somewhat and is placed with a score of 4.15.

Alberto Núñez Feijóo, president of the PP, has dropped below 4 this month and is left with a score of 3.95. The leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, is again the worst rated with a score of 2.89.