The Chinese economy and the rebound during National Day

During the 2024 National Day holiday, China’s economy showed a trend of stabilization and improvement. This positive signal injected a strong boost into efforts to achieve annual economic targets.

During the holidays, data on personnel mobility between regions, visitor reception in urban parks and box office revenue highlighted the vitality of the consumer market. On October 5, personnel mobility between regions exceeded 280 million, and urban parks across the country welcomed more than 121 million visitors in the first five days of the holiday. As of 1:14 p.m. on October 6, box office revenue during the National Day holiday period exceeded 1.8 billion yuan. Behind these figures is the vigorous development of the holiday economy and the effective release of the potential of domestic demand.

The formation of this favorable trend is closely related to the spirit of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee held on September 26, 2024 and the policies issued in this regard. The meeting highlighted the importance of promoting sustained and healthy economic development, and formulated a series of policy measures to stabilize economic growth, facilitate industrial modernization and expand domestic demand. These policies began to take effect during the National Day holiday, playing a crucial role in improving market expectations.

The real estate market showed positive changes during the National Day holiday. Influenced by the intensive release of real estate policies, many regions actively responded to the spirit of the Political Bureau meeting by implementing specific measures in cities to stimulate their vitality. Sales offices in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen were bustling with activity, and online new home signing also showed a significant rebound. During the holidays, the number of property visits and tours, reflecting the intentions of home buyers, increased considerably.

Commercial residential property sales in many regions increased to varying degrees, and market confidence partially recovered. According to data from Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, from October 1 to 3, the sales volume of new homes in Shenzhen increased by 569% year-on-year, while the sales volume of second-hand homes increased by 233% year-on-year.

The consumer market also flourished during the National Day holiday. Nearly 3,200 special events were held in urban parks, attracting large numbers of visitors and stimulating consumption in surrounding areas. The excitement in the film market also added vitality to the consumer market. Meanwhile, promotional activities launched by local governments and enterprises further stimulated consumers’ shopping enthusiasm.

Visiting car shows became a popular option for many consumers. Combined with the vehicle renewal subsidy policy, cities such as Suzhou, Lanzhou, Xi’an, Fuzhou, Tianjin, Nanjing and others organized automobile fairs, attracting a large number of consumers to visit and purchase vehicles. In addition to discounts offered by various automakers, consumers could apply for subsidies when scrapping and replacing their old vehicles, enjoying double benefits.

The cultural and tourism industry was also booming. Tourist attractions across the country were crowded during the National Day holiday, and the considerable increase in visitor reception in urban parks was a reflection of the thriving state of the cultural and tourism industry.

At the same time, the daily number of vehicle crossings at the Zhuhai Port of the Zhuhai-Macao-Hong Kong Bridge exceeded 20,000 for the first time, with more than 14,500 being single-plate Hong Kong and Macao vehicles. This not only reflected the convenience of interregional transportation, but also provided favorable conditions for the development of the cultural and tourism industry, promoting interregional exchanges and cooperation in these sectors.

Driven by the spirit of the Political Bureau meeting on September 26, mainland China’s capital market saw a significant rally ahead of the National Day holiday. Although the A-share market was closed over the holiday, the Hong Kong stock market was exceptionally active, reaching record trading volume and attracting the attention of global investors.

The Hang Seng Index rose 7.59% during the National Day holiday, while the Hang Seng TECH Index rose 10%. After recent sustained rallies, the Hong Kong stock market’s year-to-date performance has ranked first among major global indices, outperforming the US and Japanese stock markets. The volume of funds from the north, considered a “channel” for foreign investment, has recently doubled. Both the MSCI China Index and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index, which track the performance of Chinese stocks, hit new highs in gains.

Looking ahead to the outlook for the Chinese economy in the fourth quarter, we have reason to be optimistic. Sustained policy efforts will further consolidate the trend of stabilization and improvement of the economy. The spirit of the Political Bureau meeting will continue to guide local governments in the formulation and implementation of policies that favor economic development. For example, in the real estate market, policies are likely to be further optimized to promote stable and healthy development. In the consumer market, measures to stimulate consumption and expand domestic demand are likely to continue to be introduced.

However, we must also clearly recognize that economic development still faces some challenges. The uncertainty of the global economic situation and the intensification of competition in the domestic market may have certain impacts on economic growth. Therefore, while remaining optimistic, we should closely monitor changes in the economic situation and timely adjust policy measures to address potential risks and challenges.

Note: this is an article republished from the media “CGTN” through a cooperation agreement between both parties for the dissemination of journalistic content. original link.

Liu Chunsheng, special current affairs commentator for CGTN, is an associate professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing.