Türkiye welcomed the month of April with a new political panorama. Sunday's municipal elections inflicted worst electoral defeat for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in more than two decades and sent him a notice for the next presidential elections in 2028. The main opposition party, the Republican People's Party (CHP), took control of the country's largest cities.
In Istanbulthe most important city that was at stake in the elections, the mayor Ekrem Imamoglu (CHP) won a new mandate, getting more than 10 points more votes than his rival Murat Kurum, from Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP). Mansur Yavas, mayor of the capital Ankara, also retained his position with a surprising 29 points advantage over his rival.
Overall, the CHP ensured the victory in 36 of Türkiye's 81 provincesaccording to the Turkish agency Anadolu, registering notable advances in many strongholds of Erdogan's party. Nationally, the opposition party won the support of 37% of voters, surpassing the 36% of the president's party, marking its most significant electoral victory since Erdogan came to power two decades ago.
[Erdogan anuncia que las locales de Turquía cierran su etapa: “Son las últimas elecciones para mí”]
Another factor that contributed to the AKP's electoral setback was the growing popular support for the Islamist New Welfare Party. The party, which recently left Erdogan's governing coalition, took 6% of the total vote and won two of Turkey's 81 provinces. This suggests, experts say, that the ruling party can no longer take hardline Islamist voters for granted.
With this victory, the opposition reaffirmed itself as a political force and Imamoglu ran as the president's main rival. “The main Turkish opposition party managed to defeat the ruling alliance, marking the biggest electoral defeat of Erdogan's career. Despite the unequal playing field, government candidates have lost even in conservative strongholds. It is about the best CHP results since 1977 elections”Sabancı University professor Berk Esen noted in a tweet.
Turkey's main opposition party managed to defeat the ruling alliance, delivering the biggest election defeat of Erdogan's career. Despite an even playing field, gov't candidates have lost even in conservative strongholds. This is CHP's best results since the 1977 elections. pic.twitter.com/fn4AhIoyMP
— Berk (@berkesen) March 31, 2024
An unexpected punishment
The AKP had high expectations for these local elections after Erdogan decisively won re-election in the presidential elections in May last year. Specifically, the president personally devoted significant time and resources to the Istanbul mayoral campaign, hoping to regain control of Turkey's largest city and economic center.
The vote was therefore seen as a barometer of Erdogan's popularity, in its effort to reconquer strategic urban areas that had fallen into the hands of the opposition in the elections five years ago. The CHP's victory in Ankara and Istanbul in 2019 had weakened Erdogan's image of invincibility.
Erdogan acknowledged the electoral setback in a speech from the balcony of the presidential palace at midnight and described the defeat as a “turning point” for his party. “Unfortunately, nine months after our victory in the May 28 elections, we have not been able to obtain the result we wanted in the test of local elections. We will correct our mistakes and remedy our deficiencies,” Erdogan said in his speech.
The marked improvement over the CHP's disappointing performance in the previous year's parliamentary elections is mainly attributed to the economic situation. Despite promises made by Erdogan last summer, the economy continues to show significant deterioration. According to analysts, economic tensions, which included inflation close to 70% and a slowdown in growth induced by a harsh regime of restrictive monetary policies, led voters to punish the AKP in these elections.
“The fact that many voters did not go to the polls due to the poor economic outlook and that the right-wing votes were dispersed among different parties played an important role in the AKP's heavy defeat. The same thing happened in the elections of 1957, 1969 and 1989. If the CHP seizes this opportunity, there will be a major political rupture.”Esen stated.
Imamoglu, capable of defeating Erdogan?
In 2019, Imamoglu dealt Erdogan a major electoral blow by winning the Istanbul mayoralty for the first time, ending 25 years of rule by the AKP and its Islamist predecessors in the city. Imamoglu has since become one of Turkey's most popular politicians. Because of this threat, Imamoglu has repeatedly been the subject of legal problems that most outside observers consider politically motivated.
Now, after a second victory, the mayor of the city of 16 million people is seen by many as the Turkish president's main opponent in the upcoming presidential elections. “The Turkish people demanded change and Imamoglu is now the President Erdogan's default nemesis“he stated to Reuters Hakan Akbas, Senior Advisor at Albright Stonebridge Group.
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In any case, Imamoglu's chances of following the same trajectory as Erdogan, who jumped into national politics after triumphing in Istanbul, have improved enormously after these elections. The mayor of the city, 52 years old, is already the best-known opposition politician and has a clear path to run in the 2028 presidential elections.
“Imamoglu demonstrated that he could reach beyond the deep sociopolitical divisions that define Turkey's opposition electorate, even without its institutional support. This makes him the most politically competitive rival to the Erdogan regime“said Mert Arslanalp, associate professor of political science at Istanbul's Bogazici University. Reuters.
