Mus players know that if someone loses their mind and starts throwing crackers with the supposed intention of misleading the opponent, they are only showing that they don’t know how to play. And that he will end up paying for it. On the contrary, the órdagos, the coups of effect and the risky decisions have a much better poster in politics. Fortune favors the bold, is often said by recalling an ancient proverb. People forget that for every Napoleon who perfected that idea until he managed to intimidate his enemies, there are a hundred other warlords who put it into practice and only succeeded in hastening his annihilation.
With a serious and somewhat emaciated gesture – I’m sure he hadn’t slept much – Pedro Sánchez announced this Monday from Moncloa the end of the legislature and the call for early elections. He did it in less than three minutes. No optimistic message about the future. A brief summary of some achievements of the Government. The lament for the defeated socialist presidents and mayors after “an impeccable management.”
With his decision, Sánchez granted a great gift to the Popular Party by confirming its attacks in recent months that the coalition government was dead. The defeat of 28M imposes its law. “There is only one infallible method to solve these doubts”, said Sánchez. Close the store and ask the Spanish if they want it to reopen with the same offer.
Some did not take long to highlight on Twitter the audacity of the protagonist of the news. “A political animal”, they said with admiration. Another move that nobody expected. Flattery always accompanies politicians when they surprise. But surprise is not a value by itself.
The truth is much more prosaic. Moncloa thinks it knows that the electoral results in December would be worse. Giving the electorate a shock of 10,000 volts will serve to wake them up. The truth is that the threat of coalition governments of the PP and Vox did not work in the Madrid elections of 2021, nor in those of Castilla y León, nor in those of Andalusia, nor in this 28M. They will have to try again. This is the definitive one. A new shock therapy that fails will finish off the patient.
At a time when there are reasons to doubt the mobilization of left-wing voters, the elections will be held on July 23. In summer and in the middle of a bridge. That seems more reckless than bold.
The extrapolation of the result of the municipal elections to a general one -an exercise that journalists love to do and which is highly debatable because it forces us to compare very different elections- may be another factor that Moncloa has taken into account when thinking that not everything is lost. He would leave the PP below 140 seats. The possibility remains open that there is no viable majority with sufficient support in Congress, which would force a repeat of the elections, as has happened before.
With what face will the PSOE appear in these elections? One in which the coalition government partner and the legislature’s partners in Parliament will appear as little as possible. The time comes when each party defends itself.
The socialist barons demonstrated on several occasions that they preferred to ignore that there would have been no Sánchez government since 2019 without the support of United We Can and the other partners. Moncloa could not admit out loud that needing the support of Catalan and Basque independentists had a very bad sale in some regions of Spain, and 28M has confirmed it.
To his left, there are no winners and the optimism that can be detected in the statements seems more fake than real. There was no lack of calls to the unity of the “space” of the left. Neither were those who made self-criticism to others, a deeply rooted custom on the day after an election.
The result of Podemos or the alliance of Podemos and Izquierda Unida was devastating with percentages in the autonomous which are between 4% and 5%. He acquired tragicomic airs in appointments like the one in the city of Huescawhere Podemos (4.6%) and IU (4.4%) were separately left out of the consistory as neither reached 5%.
“We went out to win in the second half of the game and we want to do what we do best, which is come back,” Ione Belarra said on Monday in a recorded message posted on Twitter. There are comebacks that may lack time, especially seeing what has happened in recent months. Personal attacks and mutual suspicions have happened until now. Belarra affirmed that he is working on this joint candidacy. Now they must try in ten days what has been impossible in months.
Yolanda Díaz limited herself to a tweet that said that “things have to be done differently”, which may mean that the agreement is possible if the appropriate measures are taken or that she has done the math and has come to the conclusion that what Podemos contributes in votes, subtracts in other issues, such as the message that she wants to sell to the citizens.
A joint candidacy by Sumar, Podemos, IU and others that seems to have been done with a clean blow or because there was no other alternative will have a very difficult time generating the kind of illusion that would make a comeback possible. if you have to “hugging with snakes” to achieve that broad front or whatever you want to call it, there will be many voters who prefer to stay away from the show, lest they get bitten.
