The advance of Sánchez blurs the Spanish presidency and complicates the end of the legislature in the EU

After the debacle of the PSOE on 28-M, the President of the Government has not hesitated to scrap all these plans with a survival election advance for July 23, which has caused surprise and some concern in Brussels. Early elections that blur the Spanish presidency and complicate the end of the legislature in the European Union and the resolution of difficult and vital files for our country such as the reform of fiscal discipline rules, the European Migration Pact or the reform of the electricity market .

“Sánchez is risking his own political life but also is playing with Spain’s ability to influence these important decisions to be taken during the Spanish presidency. It can still go well for him if he wins, because he will be in a better position to assert the point of view of the Spanish government in these negotiations in the EU. But it may lose, or there may be a period of political instability, which will obviously decrease the influence of Spain in these files,” explains Jacob Kirkegaard, principal investigator at EL ESPAÑOL. German Marshall Fund.

[“Hemos perdido menos votos que poder”: así improvisó Sánchez el 23-J tras el fracaso electoral]

“Spain is in a position to ensure the normal functioning of the rotating presidency of the European Union“, assured the Minister of Agriculture, Luis Planas, in Brussels. This is the message that the Secretary of State for the EU has also transmitted to his counterparts, Pascual Navarro, during the General Affairs Council meeting this Tuesday. However, Navarro, always attentive to journalists, has refused this time to speak to the correspondents in a obvious display of discomfort.

“There are important legislative files that are being discussed in the Council of the EU and in the European Parliament. And we will be in contact with the Spanish authorities to guarantee that, regardless of the political context in Spain before and after these elections, the legislative work of the EU can continue its course normally“, said the spokesperson for the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen.

Sanchez will still have chances of exhibiting European muscle in the first weeks of July, coinciding with the electoral campaign. First with the visit to Madrid of President Ursula von der Leyen and the college of commissioners, a ritual that is repeated in all presidencies. Later she will participate in the NATO summit in Vilnius (Lithuania) on July 11 and 12, and will present the priorities of the Spanish presidency in a speech before the plenary session of the European Parliament on July 13. The highlight for the President of the Government will undoubtedly be the summit between the European Union and Latin America, which will take place in Brussels on July 17 and 18.

From then on, what worries Brussels is the risk of paralysis in the EU while a new government is formed in Spain, just in the complicated final stretch of the community legislature. The European elections are already called for between June 6 and 9, 2024 and the laws that are not agreed before the end of the year have a good chance of decaying. “If Sánchez is re-elected, he will vindicate his position and continue with his European policies. On the other hand, there may be a change of government that requires time and that translates into less stability,” explains a European diplomat.

Other analysts and diplomats minimize the impact of the electoral advance. After all, the rotating presidency of the European Union has become relegated to an eminently technical role since the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty in 2009. He no longer holds foreign representation (the head of community diplomacy, Josep Borrell, does), nor does he direct the summits (power of the President of the European Council, Charles Michel). His functions are now limited to setting the agenda for ministerial meetings (which is largely determined by the proposals presented by the Commission and events) and seeking agreements acceptable to all partners.

In addition, the rotating presidencies elaborate their program of priorities in trios, which further limits their room for manoeuvre: Spain has had Belgium (first semester of 2024) and Hungary (second semester of 2024). “The elections in Spain should not have a great impact. The program has been prepared for months. The presidency must act as an impartial mediator (honest broker) to facilitate agreements. Its role has to be neutral and therefore not subject to politicization. But it will be interesting to see what happens,” another diplomat from a Nordic country told this newspaper.

“The impact at the technical level of the electoral advance is not going to be too great because the broad lines of the presidency would be very similar if we had President Feijóo. The European vision of Sánchez and Feijóo do not differ too much, for example regarding the EU’s policy towards Latin America,” says Camino Mortera-Martínez, head of the Brussels office of the Center for European Reform.

It is not uncommon for elections to be held in the country that holds the rotating presidency of the EU. The last time this happened was during the French presidency of the first quarter of 2022: Emmanuel Macron revalidated his mandate after defeating Marine Le Pen for the second time in April of that year. The French president had concentrated most of his program at the helm of the EU during the first quarter of the year.

But there’s only two cases in which there has been a change of political sign in the Government in full presidency of the EU. The first time occurred during the Italian presidency in the first half of 1996: the government of the technocrat Lamberto Dini fell after losing the support of Silvio Berlusconi and in the April elections, a center-left coalition led by Romano Prodiwho would later be president of the Commission.

The second case was that of the Czech presidency during the first half of 2009. The then prime minister, the eurosceptic conservative Mirek Topolánek, resigned on March 24 after being defeated in a vote of confidence in Parliament. He was replaced by technocrat Jan Fischer, who led a caretaker government for the remainder of the presidency. both presidencies are remembered in Brussels as ineffective and chaotic.