Thailand revises GDP growth forecast for 2022

Although Thailand’s economy is still recovering sharply, the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) has revised its GDP forecast.

The growth revision to 2.5-3.5% and 2.7-3.2% came in response to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and to central bank interest rate hikes.

NESDC Secretary General Danucha Pichayanan said that the Thai economy grew by 2.5% in the second quarter of this year. Growth in the first half, therefore, stood at 2.4%. The expansion was the result of private sector spending and service exports. Mr. Danucha said that the relaxation of disease control measures contributed positively to growth as it allowed people’s spending behavior to normalize. He also cited that government spending plans have contributed to growth.

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The NESDC Secretary General said his office revised its GDP growth forecast for 2022 from 2.5-3.5% to 2.7-3.2%. One of the factors that led to the revision was the protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine and its effect on the volatility of oil and natural gas prices, as well as raw materials. The resumption of disputes between the United States, Taiwan and China may also trigger a new round of sanctions that would affect the world economy.

Growth in the first half, therefore, stood at 2.4%

However, Mr. Danucha pointed out that there are clear signs of recovery in the Thai economy for the remainder of the year. He said that economic activity has returned to a level similar to that of before the pandemic. Revenue from foreign tourists is now expected to reach 600 billion baht this year, up from a previous forecast of 500 billion baht. The NESDC expects 9.5 million foreign tourists to enter Thailand this year.