tense pre-parliamentary eves for the new prime minister

The Assembly meets on July 3, profoundly renewed by the vote on May 14. One of the first steps will be the inauguration of the Chamber and the appointment of the new head of government. A clash of pro-monarchists and the military against the faction that won a clear popular mandate in the May 14 elections is looming.

Bangkok () – A tense atmosphere accompanies the proximity of the formal opening, on July 3, of the Bangkok Parliament – with a profoundly renewed political composition after the vote on May 14 – and the subsequent dates: the inauguration of the Chamber of Deputies on July 4 and the appointment of the new head of government in the joint session of the two chambers on the 13th of the same month. There are two main issues on the table: the clear parliamentary majority of one of the two opposing coalitions and which of the parties – and within each which party – will appoint the new prime minister.

The 2017 Constitution dictated by the military that came to power in May 2014 with a coup led by the outgoing Prime Minister (and pro-tempore until reappointment), former General Prayut Chan-ocha, establishes a House of 500-member elective deputies and a 250-member Senate designated by the Armed Forces, whose votes participate in the designation of the head of government. The objective of this design was to prevent opposition forces from pro-military, pro-monarchist and nationalist groups from asserting themselves.

In the May elections, an opposition majority emerged that in the Chamber can count on 312 deputies against 188. Consequently, always according to the Constitution, the winners will need at least 376 parliamentarians to be able to designate the prime minister. Frantic contacts are taking place between the victorious eight-party coalition in the House and senators to encourage the defection of at least 60 in their favor.

Difficult task due to the evident interest that the senators have in guaranteeing (with a renewed contractual force) that the control system of the Armed Forces and the traditional elites is perpetuated. It is no coincidence that on Saturday the pro-military nominated former general Prawit Wongsuwon, leader of the Palang Pracharath party, as their candidate to head the next government.

On the other hand, the forces that have obtained a clear popular mandate, also in a referendum in which a record number of voters participated, are in turn competing for the main positions.

The latest rounds of talks within the victorious coalition have led to a situation where, if they were allowed to nominate the new prime minister, they would propose Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Move Forward Party, winner of the electoral contest and the Party that he would also have the right to the presidency of the Chamber. If Pita does not succeed, it is up to Pheu Thai, the second winning party, a short distance from the first, to assume leadership of the coalition by proposing its own candidate for the post of prime minister.

The candidacy for the leadership of a party strongly opposed by the military today would represent, despite everything, a minor risk, considering the perspectives of its role and its interests, and to prosecute those guilty of repression, brutality and murder.

However, the choice of a Pheu Thai prime minister could also be less of a threat to the monarchy, whose role the Move Forward – fueled by a strong movement of opinion, particularly from the urban middle class and youth – would like to revise. in light of historical events, of the military tutelage of sovereigns that has never been hindered and of a law, lèse majesté, the use of which to attack political opponents and dissidents has contributed to undermining respect for the royal house.