The arrests in recent weeks of the former deputy to the leader of the Democratic Party, Saidzafar Usmonzoda, and other well-known figures in Tajik society are based on accusations of trying to overthrow President Rakhmon. But few analysts believe that such an attempt has any chance of success and some fear a cleansing manoeuvre to get rid of a figure who no longer serves their interests.
Dushanbe () – Information is beginning to emerge about the attempted coup in Tajikistan, which led to the arrest a few weeks ago of Saidzafar Usmonzoda (pictured), now a former MP and leader of the Democratic Party, accused of trying to seize power from President Emomali Rakhmon. According to the prosecution, “in order to carry out his criminal plan, Usmonzoda recruited a number of people from different social categories in the country and abroad among his supporters, asking the representative of a foreign state for 10 million dollars to organize protests among the population.”
Following Usmonzoda, other well-known figures in Tajik society were arrested, and it is not yet known how closely these measures are connected, but it is believed that there was a plan to bring about the overthrow of the current power. Tajik political scientist Aziz Nurulloev, who is currently living in the United States, told Radio Ozodi in an interview that “among the groups that have a certain influence within Tajikistan, the need for changes in the political and social framework has been growing for some time, since the monopolization of all resources in the hands of individual clans or regions leads in one way or another to the current Rakhmon system of government, and inevitably causes conflicts of interest.”
Other experts, such as Temir Umarov, a fellow at the Carnegie Center in Berlin, are very skeptical that a coup in Dushanbe will succeed. According to Umarov, authoritarian regimes often resort to such accusations to get rid of inconvenient or dangerous people for the state, or even just those who possess important and secret information. “In all likelihood, we can speak here of a deal that failed to materialize, and at some point Usmonzoda, who had previously always been loyal to Rakhmon, became superfluous for all parties to the conflict,” explains Umarov.
Nurulloev notes that “in the current political situation in Tajikistan, there is no individual or organised group capable of expressing truly independent positions,” and even among all those arrested in recent days, no one can aspire to this image. Even in the past, there have been no protagonists capable of launching credible challenges to the system, and in the context of even stricter control than at present, it is difficult to see who could embody hopes for real change.
Almost all analysts agree on this pessimistic view, although one political scientist who asked to remain anonymous said that “unusual conditions today can move people unknown to the general public to organize unpredictable actions.” Some politicians, such as the former head of the Democratic Party Makhmadruzi Iskandarov, the leader of the unregistered party “New Tajikistan” Zaid Saidov, the leader of the social-democratic party Rakhmatillo Zoiroda or the leader of another unregistered party Tarakkiet, Sultan Kuvvat, all of them quite harmless to the Rakhmon authorities, which did everything possible to exclude them from the political scene or lock them behind bars.
Usmonzoda could have gained some consensus, at least for a short period, as he was a highly credible political figure, turning his loyalty to the president into scathing criticism of his decisions. In the view of most observers, such a change of leadership would have been possible only with strong external support from one of Tajikistan’s “protector” countries, such as Russia or China.
One of the main opposition figures abroad, Sharofiddin Gadoev, vice-chairman of the Tajik National Alliance, spoke immediately after Usmonzoda’s arrest of a certain general who is said to be offering support to the military, saying that “Russia would like to see a new government formed in the country.” Umarov and other experts do not believe that it would be in Moscow’s interest to destabilize the situation in Tajikistan by removing a Putin loyalist like Rakhmon; but perhaps all the factors at play have not yet come to light.
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